.jpg?tr=w-1920)
BetMGM Big Game Preview: Back A Philly vs Kansas City Barnstormer
It’s showtime in New Orleans as the Big Easy hosts the Big Game between Philadelphia and Kansas City.
There’s a sense of familiarity heading into this season’s finale as we witness a repeat of the 2023 showpiece when Kansas City were crowned champions for the third time courtesy of a 38-35 win over Philadelphia.
Patrick Mahomes will try to lead Kansas City to a similar result this time around and become the first franchise in modern football history to win three straight championships – they go into this game as slight favourites at 3/4 with BetMGM.
Philadelphia will have their sights set on revenge. Their hopes rest on a man who wasn’t around for their 2023 matchup: running back Saquon Barkley.
The 27-year-old has become an icon in the City of Brotherly Love since joining last offseason, rushing for over 2,000 yards (including the postseason) and potentially carrying Philadelphia to a first title since 2017. They are 11/10 to win it all in New Orleans.
Can Philly ruin Kansas City’s chance of becoming the first team to ‘three-peat’ or will Mahomes add another accolade to his already Hall of Fame-worthy legacy?
The world will be watching and we’re here to give you an in-depth look at what to expect come Sunday 9th February with a deep dive into the best value betting markets.
TIP 1 – PATRICK MAHOMES MOST PASSING YARDS @ 11/25
Mahomes has transcended the quarterback position.
Since the Texas Tech graduate took over as the starting QB at Arrowhead, Kansas City have picked up seven consecutive division titles and have never been eliminated from the postseason without reaching at least the Conference Championship game.
Mahomes is on the cusp of history on 9th February; a win in New Orleans would mean a historic third consecutive championship, a feat that has never been achieved in the modern game.
And the 29-year-old usually shines when the lights are brightest: he was the youngest quarterback to win MVP when he threw for 286 yards in a 31-20 comeback win over San Francisco in February 2020.
Mahomes had a similar pass-happy performance in last year’s title game when Kansas City toppled San Francisco again, airing it out for 333 yards during their overtime victory in Nevada.
Add in that in four of his last five matches as a starter Mahomes has thrown for more yards than his counterpart and the knowledge that Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts has not out-thrown any opponent during their postseason run so far and Mahomes is a smart bet at 11/25 to lead this year’s Big Game in passing yards too.
TIP 2 – SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 111.5 RUSHING YARDS & TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN @ 27/20
Questions have been raised over Philadelphia’s passing game throughout the season but no such questions have emerged surrounding their running attack, spearheaded by the imperious Barkley.
The running back has transformed Philadelphia’s ground game with 2,000 rushing yards in the regular season – only the ninth player in NFL history to reach this marker – as well as 11 100-yard rushing games in the regular season.
He has not slowed down in the postseason. Barkley clocked 119 rushing yards in Philadelphia’s game against Green Bay before running for over 200 yards against Sean McVay’s Los Angeles outfit in the Divisional Round.
Add five touchdowns across his last two postseason games and Barkley is slowly becoming an unstoppable force on the ground.
That said, Kansas City's stymie-run defence needs to be considered. Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive front had the eighth-best rush defence throughout the regular season, limiting their opponents to just 106 yards per game.
However, their run defence has tailed off over their last three games. They allowed Buffalo running back James Cook to score two touchdowns on the ground and average 6.5 yards per carry, while Joe Mixon managed to find the endzone in the Divisional Round.
There are no certainties in football – but Barkley producing in a big game is as close as it comes. As such, over 111.5 rushing yards and a touchdown at 27/20 provides impressive value.
If Philly win the Big Game on Sunday – a date that also happens to be Barkley’s birthday – he is their most likely MVP candidate at 5/2. His quarterback Jalen Hurts, also productive in the run game, is 3/1 while three-time title game MVP Mahomes is the most likely at 21/20 with BetMGM.
TIP 3 – XAVIER WORTHY & DALLAS GOEDERT OVER 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS EACH @ 19/10
The running game will take centre stage in New Orleans with Barkley on the field but there will be plenty of show-stealing pass-catchers in the Big Easy too – including AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Travis Kelce.
Brown has had a turbulent year in Philadelphia. From calling out his team’s passing attack after a win to reading self-help books on the sidelines during a playoff game, the former Tennessee wide receiver has stolen his fair share of headlines this season.
However, when the ball is thrown his way the 27-year-old is one of the most reliable receivers in the league. Last weekend he hauled in six catches for 96 yards and a touchdown against Washington – the same statline he produced against Kansas City in the Big Game two seasons ago.
Brown could certainly put up similar numbers in New Orleans and find the endzone at 31/20 but our eyes are drawn to one of the more underrated pass-catchers for Philadelphia: Dallas Goedert.
Click here for full Big Game Bet Builder Profit Boost information and terms..
The veteran tight end has put up modest numbers so far this season – but he has been extremely consistent in the postseason. Goedert has exceeded 49.5 yards in three of his last four outings, peaking at 85 receiving yards in the Conference Championship against Washington.
With Kansas City allowing the most yards to tight ends this season (1,191) Goedert should go over his expected total of 49.5 receiving yards in New Orleans.
We expect Xavier Worthy to top his target of 49.5 receiving yards, too. The Texas rookie possesses record-breaking speed (40-yard dash in 4.21sec) and is slowly emerging as one of Kansas City’s most impactful players on offense.
Worthy has caught the ball for six points in three of his last four games and registered 65 yards or more in three of his last four games. Combining Worthy and Goedert each to have over 49.5 receiving yards at 19/10 provides mouthwatering value.
BETMGM’S BIG GAME BET BUILDER – OVER 49.5 POINTS IN THE GAME & BOTH JALEN HURTS & KAREEM HUNT TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN @ 5/1
The world will be hoping that Kansas City and Philadelphia can reproduce the 38-35 shootout we saw in 2023 and, based on the points totals from the Conference Championship games, we could be in store for a score-happy conclusion to the season.
Philadelphia racked up 55 points against Dan Quinn’s lauded Washington defence last week and they rank within the top 10 for offensive points per game this season (28.4).
Kansas City needed to score 32 to get past Buffalo at Arrowhead and their offensive output ranks within the top half of the league as well, with 23.2 points per game on average.
Combine that with two of their last three games surpassing a total of 70 points and these two should breeze past the 49.5 points total on the biggest stage.
Who will be responsible for all those points? Well, for Kansas City, the most likely outcome is Kareem Hunt.
Since re-signing in ‘the Heart of America’ Hunt found the endzone seven times in the regular season and added two more in the postseason.
He’s on a four-game scoring streak and Kansas City will continue to ride the hot hand of Hunt straight into the endzone. We’re adding him to our Big Game Bet Builder as an anytime touchdown scorer.
Hurts has also had an affinity for the endzone this season. Hurts ranked fifth during the season for rushing touchdowns – yes, he’s a quarterback – and has four such TDs in the postseason. His dynamic running ability and the power of the ‘Tush Push’ should propel Hurts to another score in this one.
BETMGM BIG GAME MARKETS
Check out all our Big Game markets including MVP, first touchdown scorer, winner of the coin toss, highest scoring quarter and more here.
And if it’s the off-field entertainment you’re after, our half-time show specials such as first song and last song performed can be found here.
We’ve even got you covered for which colour of Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach here.
All odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
Big Game Bet Builder Profit Boost Terms & Conditions
Selected players only. 25% Profit Boost on any Philadelphia vs Kansas City Bet Builder at 4/1 (5.0) or higher. Offer runs 09:00 04/02/25 - 23:30 09/02/25. Max stake £10. Max win £5k. Cashed out/voided bets do not qualify. Not to be used with any other offer. 18+. T&Cs apply.