European Championship: Group D Preview
France head into Euro 2024 this summer as the firm favourites to escape Group D but a couple of concerning performances recently means not everyone is convinced Les Bleus can win the whole thing.
Didier Deschamps’ side have fared well at World Cups in recent years but a disastrous Euro 2020 campaign still lingers in the memory. Escaping the group stage is the bare minimum the FFF require yet France might not have it all their own way in Germany.
The Netherlands and Poland pose a threat not only to France’s group dominance but also their aspirations of progressing. Austria, too, will fancy their chances in this group following an impressive set of results over the season.
Group D initially appeared straightforward when the Euro 2024 draw was made. But the odds suggest we could have plenty of competition for the top two spots here.
In this Group D Euro 2024 guide, we’ll take you through a detailed analysis of each competing team, assess the top players to watch, and offer a few football betting tips too.
Euro 2024 Group D
Here’s a look at all four nations competing in Euro 2024 Group D:
France
France are priced at 7/2 to win Euro 2024, narrowly behind favourites England (16/5). Les Bleus have a frighteningly talented squad. The likes of Kylian Mbappe, Dayot Upamecano, Ibrahima Konate and Kingsley Coman are coming into their prime. Antoine Griezmann, Olivier Giroud and Benjamin Pavard bring experience, while Eduardo Camavinga, Warren Zaïre-Emery and Malo Gusto are part of a fresh crop of exciting youngsters coming through.
France reached the World Cup final 18 months ago and have maintained the pace since then. Their only real blip has been to lose friendlies home and away to Germany. The other slight concern is Deschamps' side don't possess the water-tight defence and midfield that has eased them through previous tournaments.
At 8/15 France are the clear favourites to top Group D, and 1/5 to finish in the top two. Historically, there's always a chance France could implode. Yet this team is relatively free of egos and there's a hunger to recapture European silverware for the first time since 2000.
Netherlands
Netherlands have endured a decade of mediocrity since reaching the World Cup semi-finals in 2014. They limped out of Euro 2020 at the last-16 stage with a 2-0 loss to Croatia. The 2022 World Cup saw them make the quarters before exiting on penalties against Argentina.
Expectation isn't high in the KNVB camp heading into this summer and there's a sense that qualifying second to France for Euro 2024 is proof of the Dutch position right now. They are not one of the top picks to win the Euros, despite the desperation from fans across the country to finally deliver a trophy.
Netherlands will be favourites to beat Austria and Poland, and most would expect them to progress to the last-16 with at least six points. Yet Ronald Koeman's side could implode here and buckle under the weight of such expectation.
Poland
Poland are the outsiders at 10/1 to win Group D, which may come as a surprise to bettors. After all, Poland have some supremely talented players in the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Piotr Zielinski and youngster Nicola Zalewski. There is a lot of international experience in this squad.
The problem they have is goals. Take Lewandowski out of the squad and Zielinski, Kamil Grosicki, Krzysztof Piatek and Karol Swiderski are the only genuine goal threat. It's easy to assume Poland rely too heavily on Lewandowski but they are yet to find a true winning formula without their captain.
Indeed, they aren't guaranteed to score even when the Barcelona man is playing. Lewandowski's powers are waning and that affects the entire team. They are outsiders in a group that, in previous tournaments, would have them as second favourites.
Austria
In previous years Austria would be the rank outsiders to progress out of Group D here but Ralf Rangnick has a golden generation on his hands. Marcel Sabitzer, Christoph Baumgartner, Florian Grillitsch and Xaver Schlager offer creativity and muscle in midfield, while Max Wober and Phillipp Mwene oversee the defensive discipline.
Austria's best attacking option is forward Michael Gregoritsch, who has been Rangnick's go-to choice up front recently. Sasa Kalajdzic and Manprit Sarkaria have had run-outs but can't be relied upon to hold the line. Marko Arnautovic, 35, is coming off the back of a full Serie A season having spent the season on loan at Inter could too make the squad.
The 2-0 friendly victory over Germany last November has sparked hope that Austria could muscle their way out of Group D. They are 5/4 to finish in the top two. France are first up on 17 June, after which the focus will be on scraping at least four points from Poland and Netherlands. This is certainly doable.
Euro 2024 Group D Fixtures
Euro 2024 Group D kicks off on 16 June with Poland taking on Netherlands in Hamburg. While many will assume this is the match to decide second place in the group, this big game comes on 25 June when Austria take on the Dutch.
Match 1
- 16 June – Poland vs Netherlands | Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
- 17 June – Austria vs France | Düsseldorf Arena, Düsseldorf
Match 2
- 21 June – Poland vs Austria | Olympiastadion, Berlin
- 21 June – Netherlands vs France | Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig
Match 3
- 25 June – Netherlands vs Austria | Olympiastadion, Berlin
- 25 June – France vs Poland | BVB Stadion, Dortmund
Best Players in Group D to Watch
Group D features some exciting talent and eyes will naturally fall on Kylian Mbappe this summer. The World Cup winner is leaving club side Paris Saint-Germain and seemingly has the world at his feet. Mbappe is the 5/1 favourite to top score at Euro 2024 and lead France to another trophy.
France also have the familiar faces of Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann, both of whom can flip games in a single moment of brilliance. However, the big draw in this France side away from Mbappe is Real Madrid's Aurelien Tchouameni, who at 22 has reached new levels with his club. Eighteen months ago he started the World Cup final.
Supporters of Premier League clubs will likely recognise plenty of the Dutch national team this summer. Keep an eye on the defence featuring Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk, Manchester City's Nathan Ake, and ex-Manchester United defender Daley Blind. Memphis Depay remains an influential figure in this Dutch XI, while Cody Gakpo and Wout Weghorst give Ronald Koeman plenty of options up front.
As for Austria, Konrad Laimer's influence in the XI is steadily growing and the Bayern Munich midfielder is due a stand-out tournament. It's a shame David Alaba misses the Euros through injury. Instead, keep an eye on 24-year-old Christoph Baumgartner. He's the metronome in this Austrian attack and is strong at feeding others into space.
Robert Lewandowski naturally draws much of the attention in this Poland national side but its Piotr Zielinski and Przemyslaw Frankowski who have been the most consistent performers of late. Their influence in the midfield will be key for Poland this summer.
Euro 2024 Group D Tips
This group could be a real rollercoaster if Austria live up to their potential. Here are three Group D Euro 2024 tips to consider heading into the tournament:
France to claim nine points
France come into the Euros in decent form and keen to make amends for losing the World Cup final 18 months ago. Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann should score easily in this group and keep Les Bleus ahead of the pack. The one concern for France is their defensive set-up and potential vulnerability when facing other top-ranked sides. However, that’s something to worry about in the knockouts.
They have a strong recent record against all three Group D opponents and will be odds-on favourites to win every match. Nine points from three games wouldn’t be a shock.
Austria to finish second
The battle for second place between Netherlands, Poland and Austria could be tight. Austria are certainly the form team and appear to be developing nicely under Ralf Rangnick. The Dutch don’t look overly convincing, while Poland may simply run out of steam.
Austria are 5/4 to finish in the top two, which is a fairly strong price considering their ranking. One would usually favour Netherlands here but it could come down to the final group game to settle things.
By this stage France are likely to have beaten both Austria and Netherlands, and be on their way to topping the group. Poland may even have scared the Dutch in their opening game. This is not an easy group for Ronald Koeman and Austria are primed to take advantage.
BTTS score as France beat Austria
Düsseldorf plays host to Austria vs France on 17 June and Les Bleus are hotly tipped at 4/9 to win. If you’re looking for better odds then consider the fact Austria should fare well in front of goal. Armed with the likes of Christoph Baumgartner, Michael Gregoritsch and Marko Arnautovic, Austria will have a go at France in this opening game.
They may not have enough in the squad to deny France victory but a bet of BTTS and France win is priced at 2/1.
That wager carries a lot of value when you consider BTTS is priced at 4/5. France have the capacity to outscore any team on the planet, let alone Austria.
Euro 2024 Group D Top Scorer
Kylian Mbappe leads the list of Group D top scorer candidates and for good reason. He's scored for fun at PSG this season and has six goals for his country. Mbappe's finishing makes him a scary proposition for any opposing defence to deal with, let alone his speed and ability to weave through challenges.
Mbappe's presence slightly overshadows Antoine Griezmann, who still has also enjoyed a strong domestic campaign. At 33 Griezmann may soon be nudged out of the side, and Randal Kolo Muani is certainly one to watch if the veteran is on the bench. Both could easily get in on the goals.
Poland may go through the group stage with only Robert Lewandowski scoring. However, it's very possible that Krzysztof Piatek steps up once again and delivers the goods. He is a decent outside bet to top score in Group D.
As is Wout Weghorst. Yes, most of the attention in this Dutch side will fall on Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay, but it's Weghorst who can pop up with crucial goals due to his presence in the box.
Austria, meanwhile, had five players score multiple goals during Euro 2024 qualifying. Marcel Sabitzer topped the list with four from 10 games. He could easily grab a few this summer.
Euro 2024 Outside Bet: Group D
If you're looking for an outside bet in Group D at Euro 2024 then Poland beating Netherlands is the go-to pick. The Dutch are 8/11 favourites heading into the game on June 16 but that seems a short price for a side that is still somewhat in transition.
Granted, it's generally accepted that Poland are not the force they once were. Yet they have the squad experience and individual talent to cause an upset in Hamburg.
Poland are worth backing at 7/2 to win. The Double Chance is priced at 21/20 and is a more conservative bet, but still lets you side with the underdog.
