FA Cup Semi-Final Betting Tips
This season’s FA Cup has opened up to give some new names a shot at the trophy – but that doesn’t mean the quality has dipped.
While Manchester City are the only member of the “big six” left standing, this weekend’s semi-finals feature four sides from the top 12 in the Premier League, including three of the top seven.
Crystal Palace head into the weekend as the real outsiders but they’ve given opponents Aston Villa some trouble across three meetings this term.
On Sunday, Nottingham Forest hope to continue their incredible campaign by eliminating trophy favorites City with the pair just a point apart in the Premier League standings.
Tip 1 – Over 2.5 goals @ Evens
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa (Saturday, 17:15)
Aston Villa are 6/5 favourites to beat Palace in 90 minutes but Unai Emery’s side have had their issues against the Eagles so far this term.
Palace won 4-1 when these two sides met in February, while they held Villa to a 2-2 draw at Villa Park in November after eliminating them from the EFL Cup the month prior.
Palace scored eight times across the three meetings last season, following on from a 5-0 thumping of the Villans at the tail end of last term.
That means that each of the last five encounters between these slides have featured at least three goals, with 21 scored in total.
There’s always a temptation to expect a cagey encounter at Wembley in a big game like this. However, it’s tough to see either side taking that kind of approach.
Aston Villa head into this contest having kept one clean sheet in six, while each of their last nine have featured at least three goals.
Palace drew 2-2 with Arsenal on Wednesday night, the fourth time in five games where over 2.5 goals has landed.
The Eagles lost heavily in clashes with Man City and Newcastle earlier this month but their track record against the Villans suggests they can put up more of a fight.
Villa have scored at least twice in each cup game on their way to the semis, while their defensive record is notably better at Villa Park.
This game should open up after the first goal and three of the last four encounters have seen the deadlock broken within 10 minutes.
With over 2.5 goals priced at Evens here, you could back these two to put on a show.
Tip 2 – Over 1.5 Manchester City goals @ 8/11
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City (Sunday, 16:30)
After a nightmare slide mid-season, Pep Guardiola’s side are on course to chase down Arsenal for second and potentially pick up some silverware.
City have won five of their last six, a run which started with a 2-1 victory at Bournemouth after the international break.
They’ve beaten Palace, Everton and Villa across their last three starts, scoring nine times across those victories.
Forest did what they do best on Monday, securing three points at 16th-placed Tottenham. The Tricky Trees have earned a brilliant return against the bottom 10, picking up 14 of their 18 league wins against bottom-half teams.
Forest’s record against stronger sides away from the City Ground is a concern going into this clash. They’ve lost six of nine trips to the top 10, conceding multiple goals in seven of those matches.
City won 3-0 when these two met at the Etihad. They should be confident of another strong attacking display, thanks to some positive displays in recent weeks.
Across their last six games, Man City have generated 15.13 expected goals, averaging well over two per game.
Forest have conceded 8.1 expected goals in their last four matches. They’re able to get away with that against the likes of Manchester United and Tottenham but the calibre of finishers that City boast should make life tough for Nuno Espirito Santo’s team.
City head into this clash full of confidence and they’ll be looking to keep their late-season surge going.
Forest are likely to play on the back foot and allow City to dictate things at Wembley, so over 1.5 goals for the Citizens is the standout bet.
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Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation