Golden Goals Matchday 18: Festive goalfest in Liverpool vs Arsenal

The Premier League action is coming thick and fast as we launch head-first into a fruitful festive fixture list – with a massive game between Liverpool and Arsenal headlining this week’s Golden Goals.

Our £1 million jackpot for predicting six correct scores remained out of reach last weekend but 18 players shared the £5,000 prizepool with three correct choices.

As for us, we had a weekend to forget with results going against the tide. Who’d have predicted Manchester City to stumble at home to Crystal Palace or Brighton somehow not finding the net for the first time since September?

We are here to make amends, though, as we preview the latest Golden Goals matchday headlined by a massive game between Liverpool and Arsenal.

West Ham vs Manchester United

Form (all competitions) West Ham: LWLWD; Manchester United: DLWLW

Here we are again: the bi-weekly debate of whether Manchester United are back in form after a positive result or whether they are bound to scorch fans just as they start to believe again. At this point, it’s too difficult to tell which Red Devils will turn up.

The consensus last time out was that Manchester United would be dismantled by Liverpool at Anfield. They had conceded 21 goals in their previous five meetings with Jurgen Klopp’s men and had just lost to both Bayern Munich and Bournemouth.

Admittedly, Erik ten Hag’s men were outmatched from minute one at Anfield and barely mustered a chance that truly troubled Liverpool (Exhibit A: the one-sided match momentum graphic below). But, to their credit, the visiting side were stubborn on Merseyside to snatch a point.

There have been no such question marks surrounding the current form of West Ham United. Besides a 5-0 defeat to Fulham, and notwithstanding a midweek cup humbling at Anfield, David Moyes’s men are actually on something of an impressive stretch.

They currently rank sixth in the form table – ahead of Tottenham, Manchester City and this weekend’s opponents Manchester United – and enter this one off the back of arguably their most impressive recent performance against Wolves.

A 3-0 victory over the Midlands side featured a brace from in-form Mohammed Kudus and another goal from Jarrod Bowen, the Englishmen’s 10th of the campaign.

At this stage of the campaign only Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah boast a more impressive haul than the English forward. What’s even more impressive is that he is outperforming his xG by more than three goals; a feat only matched by Hwang Hee-chan, Son Heung-min and his Hammers team-mate Kudus.

Six of the last eight meetings have ended in a 1-0 scoreline, so perhaps there won’t be many goals at the London Stadium. Consistency should pay dividends, though, in a narrow home win for West Ham.

Prediction: West Ham 1-0 Manchester United

Fulham vs Burnley

Form (all competitions) Fulham: LWWLW; Burnley: LDLWL

A game at Craven Cottage now means one thing: a guaranteed 5-0 win for Fulham.

Jokes aside, the free-flowing attacking football on display when the Cottagers play at home in recent weeks is a marvel to behold.

They have scored 10 goals across the last two home games – remarkably that’s only five fewer than what they have mustered in the other 15 games this season.

One of the catalysts for this upturn in goalscoring output was Raul Jimenez. After a barren run to start the campaign, the Mexican has now found his footing and joined Willian as Fulham’s top scorer with three in his last three.

Unfortunately for Fulham, Jimenez is missing for this encounter after seeing red against Newcastle. The onus of goalscoring will likely fall on Carlos Vinicius, though the Brazilian has only found the net on two occasions so far.

If any striker wants a confidence boost, they will want to play Burnley. The Clarets have conceded the second-most goals in the division and they have the expected goals against differential in the division with 34 goals allowed from only 28 expected.

These defensive issues often come via their own doing. Vincent Kompany’s team are the joint-second-most error-prone side in the division and, when they make errors, they tend to concede goals.

Fulham’s goal-happy nature over the last month combined with Burnley’s inability to defend stoutly should mean another comfortable home win for the Londoners.

Prediction: Fulham 3-0 Burnley

Luton Town vs Newcastle

Form (all competitions) Luton Town: LLLWL; Newcastle: WLLWW

Luton’s lack of Premier League experience may very well be catching up with them.

They have looked inspired, galvanized and unquestionably determined but they just keep falling short of results. The Hatters have lost eight points from winning positions in the Premier League this season – including leads they held over Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal.

Could Newcastle finally be the big scalp that Luton have teased all season long at Kenilworth Road?

Possibly. The Magpies do not travel well this season. They have only managed one away win in the Premier League, which was an 8-0 smashing of Sheffield United back in September. Only the bottom four in the Premier League table have a worse away record than Eddie Howe’s men.

It is a somewhat puzzling statistic considering the volume of chances Newcastle create. They produce the third-most goal-creating actions per 90 minutes and they possess the highest xG per 90 in the league too.

Both teams will be desperate for the three points for very different reasons. Luton need a win to close the gap between themselves and safety, while Newcastle want to remain within touching distance of the top five.

It must be noted that the Magpies still have a plethora of first-team injuries and played an energy-sapping EFL Cup penalties defeat against Chelsea in midweek too. A point for the Hatters is not outside the realms of possibility here.

Prediction: Luton 1-1 Newcastle

Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth

Form (all competitions) Nottingham Forest: LDLLL; Bournemouth: WWDWW

Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth are two teams at opposite ends of the Premier League ‘optimism’ spectrum.

At the bottom end, the pressure has mounted to the extent that Steve Cooper has lost his job at the City Ground. Nuno Espirito Santo inherits a team that has just one win in their last seven and which sits perilously close to the relegation zone.

It will be hard for Forest to win games if chances continue to be so hard to come by. Their toothless attack has not registered more than two shots on target in a game in a month – a 3-2 loss to Brighton on November 25th was the last time they mounted any consistent attacking threat in that regard.

This is partly a byproduct of Forest spending most of their time without the ball. They enjoy the third-lowest possession in the entire division, with only Sheffield United and Luton Town seeing the ball less.

As for Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola, he is being lauded on the south coast with the Cherries’ recent upturn in form.

After a tumultuous start, the Spaniard has overseen four wins from the last five and his men have amassed more points in those games than they did in the previous 11.

His team are working for him as well. Bournemouth have the fourth-highest ball recovery rate in the division and are winning the ball higher up the pitch, emphasised by their top-half ranking among Premier League sides for recovery line height.

The ‘new manager bounce’ trope notwithstanding, form dictates that this game can only go one way and that’s an away win.

Prediction: Nottingham Forest 0-2 Bournemouth

Tottenham vs Everton

Form (all competitions) _Tottenham: WWLDL; Everton: WWWWL

Points deduction, what points deduction? The Toffees have gotten themselves out of what could have turned into a really sticky situation in no time at all with four wins on the spin.

Even better for Everton fans is that it is four wins without conceding a goal into the bargain, something we have come to expect from a Sean Dyche-led outfit.

With only 20 goals registered against them all season, Everton possess the joint second-best defence in the entire division alongside Manchester City.

While the back four have been formidable the Blues have found some rhythm at the top end of the pitch as well, mainly due to Dwight McNeil. The former Burnley winger has been involved in four goals over his last four matches, taking his total goal involvements to 12 for the campaign.

Tottenham are back picking up points after a November to forget in the Premier League. Ange Postecoglou and his all-out-attack style of play toppled Nottingham Forest last time out meaning the Lilywhites have strung together back-to-back wins for the first time October.

The confidence has returned to the squad and perhaps nobody embodies that more than Richarlison. Spurs’ number nine has scored three goals in his last two appearances, bettering his scoring total from his first 39 appearances by one.

Add a peaking Richarlison to an already impactful frontline spearheaded by Son, who has 14 goal involvements this season, and Tottenham’s frontline could be the gift that keeps on giving over the festive period.

Overall, Everton come into this one riding high and have the second-most points gained away from home in the league but Spurs have turned the corner and look back in business. The home side should feel confident they can take all three points.

Prediction: Tottenham 2-0 Everton

Liverpool vs Arsenal

Form (all competitions) Liverpool: WDWWW; Arsenal: WLWWW

It is often perceived by many football fans that being top of the league at Christmas means you are likely to win the title come the end of the season.

While this isn’t true – only twice in the last five seasons has the team leading on December 25th actually gone on to win the league – a win this weekend for either Liverpool or Arsenal would be a statement-maker nonetheless.

That said, Liverpool’s place atop the division did not last very long as two points dropped at home to Manchester United saw them lose their place at the summit to, funnily enough, this Saturday’s opponents.

Before the United stalemate, Liverpool had found the net in 26 consecutive home games. If Mohamed Salah and co. fail to get on the scoresheet against Arsenal, too, it will be the first time they have drawn a blank in back-to-back Anfield matches since 2021.

They will be facing one of the league's tightest defences on Saturday. The Gunners have faced the fewest shots on target and have the lowest xGA (expected goals against) in the division.

This is not usually the trend when they face Liverpool though. Arsenal have failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 straight matches and have shipped 43 goals in the process. We are expecting another goal-frenzy encounter at Anfield this time round.

Football fans live for this type of game. It is a titanic tussle between two title contenders where either team can go top with a win.

This match should live up to the hype – it’s a score draw in our book.

Prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal

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