GOLDEN GOALS MD 22: ARSENAL TO LOSE MORE GROUND IN TITLE RACE
Is the title race back on?
A redemptive midweek win for Arsenal over arch-rivals Tottenham, coupled with Liverpool’s draw with Nottingham Forest, means there is lots to play for at the top with only four points separating the Anfield side from Mikel Arteta’s men.
Arne Slot’s charges face a difficult game against a dangerous and ebullient Brentford outfit while Arsenal take on Aston Villa in two of the weekend’s most eye-catching games – both of which are included in Golden Goals Matchday 22.
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Brentford 1-3 Liverpool
It’s been a shaky few weeks for Arne Slot’s Liverpool.
Putting aside the 4-0 FA Cup demolition of Accrington Stanley, they lost to Tottenham in the first leg of the EFL Cup semi-final and drew their two top-flight games, narrowing the gap at the top to only four points with a game in hand.
Luckily for the Reds, other teams are yet to fully capitalise when points are dropped. But that could catch up with them eventually; they cannot afford to be complacent and Slot knows it.
That’s why a win west London is in store for the league leaders. Will it be an easy day at the office though? Far from it.
While Brentford’s undefeated home streak did come to an end at the hands of Nottingham Forest on Matchday 17, there’s no denying the effect Gtech Community Stadium still has on the Bees – especially after this week.
Drawing with the reigning champions when you are 2-0 down with less than 10 minutes to go is no small feat — and could spell disaster for Liverpool if the leaders aren’t on their A-game.
Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo can and will make their mark if given the chance. They share 24 goals between them this season (13 for Mbeumo and 11 for Wissa) making them one of the most dangerous strike partnerships in the Premier League.
Not to be outdone, Mohamed Salah (18) and Cody Gakpo (six) have also contributed 24 combined goals so far with the world-class Egyptian currently on track to win his fourth Premier League Golden Boot, equalling Thierry Henry’s record.
We see it ending 3-1 to the visitors in a highly competitive game while this juicy Golden Combo is worth checking out too: 17/2 for Liverpool to win, over 3.5 goals, over 10.5 corners and someone to hit the post.
Leicester 2-4 Fulham
Fulham’s 3-2 defeat to West Ham on Wednesday night ended a 10-game unbeaten stretch across all competitions.
It was an uncharacteristic performance from the Cottagers. They are typically clinical in front of goal, registering 31 goals from 29 xG across the season, but they underperformed that metric against the Hammers and netted two goals from 28 shots.
Marco Silva’s side were atypically mistake-ridden at the London Stadium, too. First, Andreas Pereira’s wayward pass was punished by Carlos Soler before the usually reliable Bernd Leno was dispossessed by Danny Ings which led to a simple finish for Lucas Paqueta.
Leicester could provide the ‘get-right’ game for Fulham after Wednesday night. The Foxes have lost four of their last five against the Cottagers – including a 2-1 defeat earlier in the season courtesy of Alex Iwobi. The Nigerian midfielder netted twice in midweek and he is 13/5 to score anytime against Leicester this weekend.
If there’s one thing to expect from this game, it’s goals. Fulham have scored at least two in their last five games and Leicester have conceded twice or more in their previous eight. It’s worth noting that there was also a 5-3 between these sides in May 2023.
Over 2.5 goals seems almost a guarantee at 4/6 but going one further and backing over 3.5 goals at 7/4 certainly provides a bit more value.
As for the result, Fulham will come out on top in another King Power goalfest.
West Ham 1-1 Crystal Palace
It’s a new era for the Hammers after a pretty tumultuous period under the now-relieved Julen Lopetegui.
Graham Potter is the new man at the helm and his first two games as boss have yielded some positive signs – an unlucky and undeserved defeat to Aston Villa in the FA Cup was followed by a good home win against Fulham in a midweek Premier League clash.
It helps that the Irons were able to enjoy a half-time lead for only the third time in 21 games this season, reinforcing that the first order of business for Potter will surely be to improve his strikeforce.
Since the start of the season, no team has had a poorer shots-on-target percentage than the Hammers, with only 28% of their shots force the keeper into action.
With summer signing Niclas Fullkrug out with a hamstring injury, club captain Jarrod Bowen sidelined with a fractured foot and long-serving striker Michail Antonio out with a leg injury for the rest of the season, goalscoring is the primary concern in east London.
South of the river, meanwhile, the Eagles continue their flight up the table.
A comfortable 2-0 win over Leicester on Wednesday night put further daylight between themselves and the drop zone. Despite registering just 22 goals all season – the fourth-lowest in the league – they have only conceded 28, which is fewer than defending champions Manchester City (29).
Palace have now lost just one of their past 10 Premier League games – winning four and drawing five – while they are also on a six-match unbeaten run on the road, the club’s longest top-flight streak since 1992.
A low-scoring draw seems like a good shout – both teams to score but under 2.5 goals in the match at 19/4 could be an even better one given Potter’s personal record against Palace contains four 1-1 draws as well as seven matches with under two goals or fewer.
Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa
It seems to be a common theme for Arsenal at the moment, but this looks a must-win.
Granted they have cut Liverpool’s gap at the top of the table to four points – albeit the Reds have a game in hand – and they beat their fiercest rivals in Tottenham during the week, but it does feel that things aren’t quite as Mikel Arteta and co. would like them.
Despite only two sides scoring more goals than them in the Premier League so far the case for a proven striker rolls on, particularly with the news Gabriel Jesus is out for a prolonged period of time.
And while there is enough quality in this side to beat most teams, it’s questionable whether the lack of a top-class frontman will come back to bite them.
The Gunners host Aston Villa, who ended a run of five straight away defeats by beating Everton last time out. They don’t have a bad recent record against their hosts either, having won five of their last 10 meetings with the north London side including a 2-0 victory in this very fixture last season.
This doesn’t look like an easy one for Arsenal, especially as there’s a real possibility that Liverpool will be further ahead by the time they kick off.
With that in mind, Arsenal look short at 12/25 and instead the draw could be the way to go at 33/10.
It could also be worth considering Ollie Watkins to find the net anytime at 5/2 – he’s only scored more goals against Brighton (seven) in the top flight than against Arsenal (five), with three of those five coming at the Emirates.
Manchester United 2-0 Brighton
This fixture has been a thorny one for Manchester United down the years.
Last season, the Red Devils suffered a disappointing 3-1 home defeat against the Seagulls. Indeed, Ruben Amorim’s men have lost five of their last six league games against their south coast opponents – a grim return for a club of their calibre.
While there has been an uptick in good feeling around the club following impressive performances away to Liverpool and Arsenal – and an Amad Diallo-inspired comeback win over bottom-side Southampton – they are still in the midst of their poorest season in recent times. A win here is crucial for Amorim and his side.
Brighton, meanwhile, also remain in something of a poor run of form after such a stellar start to the campaign despite their midweek 2-0 win over relegation-threatened Ipswich.
A last-minute João Pedro goal secured a win for Brighton over United at the Amex earlier in the season in a game that was finely balanced and evenly contested right until the final whistle.
One thing that can almost be counted upon is that there will be considerable goalmouth action – four of the previous six games between the two have spawned over 2.5 goals and that is a cool 6/4 to happen again at Old Trafford on Sunday.
Home advantage will count in this one.
Ipswich 1-3 Manchester City
Manchester City’s post-Christmas resurgence has begun. A 4-1 victory over West Ham, which ultimately led to Julen Lopetegui’s dismissal, was sandwiched between a 2-0 win over Leicester and the 8-0 dismantling of Salford City.
However, Pep Guardiola’s perfect January hit a stumbling block at Brentford on Wednesday night.
The eight-time champions of England held a 2-0 lead with 10 minutes to go courtesy of Phil Foden but goals from Yoanne Wissa and Christian Norgaard ensured that City left Halmslow with one point rather than three.
Foden, at least, has finally found his feet this season. After beginning the campaign with a sole assist in his first 11 appearances, the reigning player of the year has found the net four times in his last five league matches – handy as Erling Haaland has just three in six.
Ipswich have a star man of their own up front in Liam Delap. The former Manchester City man has had fans and pundits alike purring at his performances since his summer move.
He has eight goals in 20 appearances so far this campaign from an xG of 6.4, an overperformance of almost two full goals. You can add Delap and Foden to score or assist in this weekend’s game to your Bet Builder for a mouthwatering 9/1.
The Tractor Boys have made a January addition to bolster their survival hopes. Jaden Philogene, who spent last season at Hull City alongside Delap, joined this week from Aston Villa and they’ll be hoping his 12 goals and six assists from the Championship will translate to the Premier League.
City, though, are looking closer to the formidable sides of yesteryear so it’s unlikely that turnaround starts in this one, even if it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kieran McKenna’s side go toe-to-toe with the champions and turn this one into a war of attrition.
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