Golden Goals Matchday 22: Tottenham to win goalfest & a Liverpool-Chelsea barnstormer
After a condensed winter break and a weekend of FA Cup action, Premier League football is back and we are coming full circle.
Matchday 22 marks the return fixtures from the opening day of the 2023-24 Premier League season, meaning Liverpool vs Chelsea, Aston Villa vs Newcastle and much, much more.
The return of England’s top league brings with it another set of Golden Goals selections – and we have all the stats and facts to help guide your predictions in pursuit of our £1 million jackpot.
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Onwards to Matchday 22…
Fulham vs Everton
It’s hard to put a read on Marco Silva’s Fulham this campaign. A couple of weeks ago they were descending toward the drop zone at an alarming rate after losses to both Burnley and Bournemouth in successive outings.
However, the Cottagers managed to pull out a result against title contenders Arsenal and seemingly squash any relegation chatter on the north bank of the River Thames.
Though the Arsenal result was a surprise, Fulham mustering a win at Craven Cottage was not; 18 of their 24 points this season have come at home, which is the same amount as top 10 teams Chelsea and West Ham.
Such a statistic will not strike fear into Everton. The Toffees seem to thrive when they travel away from Goodison Park; Sean Dyche’s rigid style has proved fruitful on the road, tallying the sixth-most points away from home this season.
The recent downturn in form is a worry though. After drawing a blank at Villa Park, Everton are now on a run of four consecutive games without a win and no side has scored fewer goals across the last six Premier League games than the Toffees’ six.
And while the former Burnley manager has never been known for his free-flowing attacking prowess, Everton will need more from their frontmen to survive with another possible points deduction on the way. That is especially true of Dominic Calvert-Lewin – the English forward is underperforming by almost five goals relative to his xG total.
Despite Everton’s struggles in front of goal, they should leave Craven Cottage with something due to their impressive away record. Unfortunately for the neutrals, we reckon this one will finish in a low-scoring draw.
Prediction: Fulham 1-1 Everton
Crystal Palace vs Sheffield United
Does this game hold Roy Hodgson’s job in the balance? His Crystal Palace side are hovering perilously close above the drop zone and they’ve only notched one league win since November 4th.
Palace fans’ frustrations mainly emanate from the lack of goals coming from the South London outfit. Only the three promoted sides have scored fewer goals than the Eagles this campaign (22) with only Sheffield United averaging a lower goals-per-shot-on-target average (0.23).
Their lone attacking starlets are Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. With the latter still struggling with his fitness, the onus falls on Eze to do the majority of the heavy lifting in attacking areas.
It is a job he does with aplomb. The English midfielder lands within the top five for successful dribbles per 90 minutes as well as having the second-highest xG contribution per 90 minutes within the Palace squad.
Yet it would be remiss of us to talk about poor shot or chance creation without specifically mentioning Sheffield United. The Blades have almost zero cutting edge and rank dead last in most offensive categories in the Premier League – including goals scored, non-penalty xG, shots per 90 and goals per shot.
Ben Brereton Diaz’s arrival from Villarreal has bolstered Chris Wilder’s attacking options and he’s already proven he can find the net on English soil.
Combine the addition of the Chilean with a late equaliser in their last game and United might just have the confidence edge in this one. That may well be enough to earn them a point.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Sheffield United
Aston Villa vs Newcastle
These two sides have come a long way since their meeting on the inaugural day of the campaign. Newcastle looked destined to pick up where they left off last season with the 5-1 dismantling of Aston Villa but quite the opposite has happened and it’s Unai Emery’s men flying high instead.
Eddie Howe’s Magpies, meanwhile, are slowly drifting further away from the idea of hosting European football at St James’ Park next season with four consecutive defeats leaving them 14 points adrift of the top four and 11 points behind fifth.
Injuries have been the main catalyst for Newcastle’s stumbling season but, in recent weeks, it has been their defensive outings which have let them down. Across the last three Premier League fixtures, they have allowed 10 goals, almost a third of the amount they have shipped all season. Indeed, they are only one conceded goal away from tying last season’s tally for the entire year.
As for Aston Villa, you wouldn’t have been able to predict their meteoric rise after their dismal showing up north earlier in the campaign.
Unless you’re Sir Alex Ferguson that is. The Manchester United legend insisted he was impressed with Villa on the opening day despite the heavy defeat. “Honestly, Aston Villa played fantastic football and just lost bad goals,” Ferguson said at the time. “It's a surprising game, football. You can play teams off the pitch and not score – that's what Aston Villa did.”
Unsurprisingly, what Ferguson predicted has come to pass: Villa have been sensational. They are the best home team in the entire division, with a single draw the only blemish on their exceptional record at Villa Park.
They are also relentless in attack. The Villans are the fourth-highest scorers in the division and they rank behind only Manchester City in goal-creating actions this season; an overwhelming attacking output that should prove fruitful against Newcastle’s recent shaky defence.
Villa should right the wrongs of the opening day and come out on the winning side here.
Prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 Newcastle
Manchester City vs Burnley
You’d be hard-stretched to find a scarier sight in football than the return of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland to a Manchester City side that is already enjoying a six-game Premier League unbeaten run.
De Bruyne, in particular, has already shown what City were missing in the early portion of the season. Since his return, the Belgian registered an assist in the FA Cup before almost single-handedly turning the game around against Newcastle with his two goal contributions.
In addition, Haaland looks scheduled to return after missing a chunk of the Christmas period with an injury. Even with his spell on the medical table, Haaland remains top of the Premier League scoring charts with 14 goals in 15 games this season.
He’s also facing a preferred opponent in Burnley. After netting a hat-trick against them in the FA Cup quarter-finals last term, Haaland bagged a brace when facing the Clarets on the opening day of the season.
It will not just be Haaland and De Bruyne who’ll be licking their lips ahead of this fixture, it’ll be all of City’s attackers against Burnley’s evidently penetrable defence. Vincent Kompany’s backline allows the second-most goal-creating actions per 90 minutes in the Premier League with 3.29 as well as the fourth-most expected goals against.
The Clarets do not have much to boast about offensively either – they are the second-lowest scorers in the division and have not scored against Manchester City since 2019, losing the last eight fixtures by an aggregate of 28-0. Let’s not overthink this one.
Prediction: Manchester City 4-0 Burnley
Tottenham vs Brentford
It may feel like an age ago now, but a warm Sunday in August was our first preview of ‘Ange-ball’ in the Premier League as Tottenham battled to a 2-2 draw against Brentford. Since this game, we have seen the highs and lows of Ange Postecoglou’s almost kamikaze style of football.
One thing that is guaranteed from the Australian’s high-risk style is bundles of creativity. His Spurs side are third and fourth in the goal-creating actions (3.50 per 90 minutes) and shot-creating actions (28.75 per 90 minutes) rankings respectively. These statistics will surely be improved by the return of James Maddison.
The midfield magician still holds the third-most goal contributions per game in the Tottenham squad (0.81 per 90 minutes) and is second in expected assists per 90 minutes with 0.34. Fortunately for Brentford, Spurs will be without Son Heung-min, who leads the team in that category and has 12 goals this campaign.
In the red corner, Ivan Toney has returned like he never left. The 27-year-old was back in action against Nottingham Forest and his controversial free-kick goal was enough to see the Bees bag their first win in five games as a result.
The Brentford forward has registered more than 10 goals in the last two seasons and he’ll be vital if Brentford are to surge up the table in the second half of this one.
He could be on the scoresheet again this weekend but it may not be enough to get a result for Thomas Frank’s men. Postecoglou’s attacking output should overpower them and it would not be surprising to see Spurs come out on top in a goal-laden game.
Prediction: Tottenham 3-2 Brentford
Liverpool vs Chelsea
Golden Goals concludes with the headline fixture of this midweek: Liverpool vs Chelsea.
As well as acting as a dress rehearsal of the upcoming EFL Cup final, this match marks the first league game since Jurgen Klopp announced he is leaving Liverpool at the end of the season.
It could well be added motivation for the league leaders who, it must be said, seem to be taking life without Mohamed Salah – first due to AFCON, then subsequently due to injury – firmly in their stride. The Reds extended their impressive unbeaten league record when the Egyptian has not played to 11 games.
Both Diogo Jota and Darwin Nunez have stepped up in the absence of Salah, with both netting braces against Bournemouth recently. Nunez, despite often comprising a perfect combination of enthralling and infuriating, is the first Premier League player to hit double figures in both goals and assists across all competitions this season.
Jota, for his part, is averaging almost a goal every two games in the league this campaign and holds the highest amount of goals per 90 minutes in the Liverpool team.
Their opponents this week, Chelsea, have made quite the resurgence in their own attacking fortunes in recent games. Between the EFL Cup and Premier League, Mauricio Pochettino’s men have slotted away 14 goals over their last five games.
Ice-cool Cole Palmer’s form has been one of the main reasons for Chelsea’s turnaround and subsequent four-game unbeaten run in the Premier League. The former Manchester City midfielder has a registered a goal contribution in four of his team’s last six league outings.
Seven straight games between these two have ended in a draw after 90 minutes so the easy thing to do would be to suggest another game ending with honours even. However, we think the men from Merseyside are insatiable at the moment and, with the Klopp factor, will take all three points in this one.
Prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Chelsea