BETMGM GOLDEN GOALS MD26: ANOTHER TWIST IN PREMIER LEAGUE TITLE RACE
Golden Goals Matchday 26 is as defining as it comes for league leaders Liverpool.
They face a Europe-less Manchester City who are looking to right the wrongs of the 2-0 defeat at Anfield in what has all the makings of yet another classic.
Before that, though, title rivals Arsenal have the chance to apply additional pressure by narrowing the gap to five points on Saturday afternoon in their home meeting with West Ham.
Elsewhere, Tottenham can make it three league wins on the spin away to Ipswich, Chelsea go to Aston Villa and Bournemouth look to strengthen their European prospects against Wolves while Southampton face a tough test in Brighton.
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Ipswich 1-3 Tottenham
Buoyed by the return of injured players such as James Maddison and Guglielmo Vicario, Tottenham ended a seven-game winless stretch at home on Matchday 25 with a 1-0 win over Manchester United.
Maddison, who missed the two prior league games due to a calf strain, returned to score the only goal, taking his tally to nine for the season and extending his lead atop the Spurs goalscoring charts.
Vicario’s re-emergence certainly made an impact at the other end. The Italian keeper made six saves, propelling Tottenham to a first clean sheet at home since August and back-to-back blanks in the league.
The Lilywhites have not won three games in a row without conceding since May 2022 but Ipswich appear to have an aversion to scoring at Portman Road. The Tractor Boys’ offensive inefficiency means they have only netted nine times at home this season – the lowest total in the league.
If Kieran McKenna’s side are to find the scoresheet, it’s almost certainly going to be Liam Delap. He has scored 43.5% of Ipswich’s goals this season; only Chris Wood (43.9%) scores a larger share of his team’s goals.
You can add Delap to score anytime, Maddison to score or assist and both teams to score to make an enticing 19/2 Bet Builder.
Ipswich got the better of Tottenham in the reverse fixture but lightning shouldn’t strike twice. Tottenham are getting healthier – they will extend their winning run to three in Suffolk on Saturday.
Arsenal 2-0 West Ham
Arsenal were dealt a hammer blow – pardon the pun – when it was revealed Kai Havertz would miss the rest of the season through injury.
The German frontman had scored four goals in his last six league matches and played a crucial role in the Gunners’ Champions League success with six goal contributions in the opening phase.
Who would step up to replace Havertz? Holding midfielder Mikel Merino, naturally.
Mikel Arteta’s Spanish compatriot came off the bench to score a brace as a makeshift centre forward and keep the pressure on Liverpool in the title race.
The former Real Sociedad man may get the plaudits for scoring the goals but teenager Ethan Nwaneri continues to be the offensive driving force for the Gunners in the absence of Bukayo Saka. He leads the team in successful take-ons per 90 minutes (3.81) and ranks second in carries into the final third per game behind captain Martin Odegaard (2.62).
Nwaneri has three goal contributions in his last four outings and he’s an attractive 13/10 to score or assist anytime against West Ham.
West Ham haven’t enjoyed the ‘new manager bounce’ that many fans expected under Graham Potter. Since beating Fulham 3-2 in his opening game, the former Chelsea and Brighton boss hasn’t taken charge of another league victory.
However, Potter has an impressive record against this weekend’s opponents on the road. His 75% win percentage at the Emirates Stadium is the highest rate among visiting managers and only Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp have won more games than Potter when playing at the home of Arsenal.
His impressive record will likely take a hit here, though.
Arsenal have won the last two games against West Ham by an aggregate of 11-2 and, while we don’t expect such a goal-happy outing on Matchday 26, Arteta’s men will sidestep the Hammers with relative ease nonetheless.
Bournemouth 3-0 Wolves
What a season the Cherries are having.
With 13 games still to go in the season, they are just five points away from equalling last year’s total, have lost just once in their previous 15 games and have banged in 14 goals in their previous five matches.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be a surprise to see them scoring so freely, given the number of shots they take. This season, they have registered 403 shots – only Liverpool (427) and Manchester City (413) have managed more.
Antoine Semenyo is responsible for 22.28% of those efforts. The exciting winger might not have the returns to show for it – he has a conversion rate of 7.61% – but his willingness to test out the keeper is making him, and Bournemouth, very watchable. You can get 4/1 for a Bournemouth win and Semenyo to score anytime and have over 3.5 shots.
Three points here will ensure they stay right in the race for European football, which many fans would only have dreamt about when they were promoted from the Championship fewer than three years ago.
Wolves, meanwhile, may have just one win in five but they were impressive in defeat to Liverpool last weekend and remain outside the relegation zone, albeit by just two points.
Since Vitor Pereira took the hotseat, Wolves are averaging 1.12 points per game – as opposed to 0.56 under previous manager Gary O’Neill. They have also shored up defensively, conceding just 1.5 goals per game compared to 2.5 under O’Neill. Small sample size, yes, but an impact nonetheless.
It is still, though, too difficult to see how they can contain an intense and in-form Bournemouth outfit here. Home win.
Southampton 1-4 Brighton
Has there ever been a more relegated team than Southampton at this stage of the season?
The lowest Premier League points total on record is Derby County – they managed 11 points all season in 2007/08, while Sunderland are next on the list with 15 points in 2005/06. Right now, it’s difficult to see where the Saints’ next win is coming from to catch that Derby total.
With Brighton, Chelsea, and Liverpool up next, the tough times are likely to continue in the short term, especially given their recent form against their south coast rivals. Indeed, they are winless in their six previous encounters with Brighton.
All the talk surrounding the Seagulls revolves around Kaoru Mitoma and his astonishing goal against Chelsea last weekend. The Japan international deftly killed a long ball with one touch before bending a delightful finish into the bottom right corner. A candidate for goal of the season if there ever was one.
They have bounced back well since the 7-0 thrashing to Nottingham Forest two weekends ago, registering back-to-back wins against Chelsea in the cup and the league respectively.
It should be a comfortable away win.
Aston Villa 1-0 Chelsea
Aston Villa have won just two of their last 11 Premier League home games against Chelsea.
Their last victory came all the way back in May 2021 – the same month the Blues won the Champions League, the competition that has clearly had an effect on Villa domestically this term.
On Matchday 26 last season Villa were fourth. That is a far cry from their current position just inside the top half. The Villans sit below Chelsea in the league but both have struggled against the sorts of sides they should be beating on paper.
It's been far from sunshine and rainbows for Enzo Maresca’s men either. Against Brighton, his side failed to record a single shot on target for the first time since September 2021, when it happened against Manchester City. It was also the third time this season the Blues accumulated less than one xG, with a worrying 0.54.
To make matters worse, Chelsea have scored just two in their last five Premier League away games, underperforming their overall expected goals on the road across that stretch by 4.8 (two goals from 6.8 xG).
This is clearly frustrating for some of their more defensive-minded players, including a certain Ecuadorian in the middle of the park.
Since the start of the 2022/23 campaign, only Wolves’ Nelson Samedo has received more yellow cards than Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo, who has picked up a booking in three of his last four appearances and is 33/20 to pick up another on Saturday.
While Chelsea may have come away with all three points in the reverse fixture back in December, you can’t ignore form and both teams leave a lot to be desired at the moment.
That said, Villa will edge this one in a scrappy 1-0.
Manchester City 2-2 Liverpool
It’s been a shaky few weeks for Liverpool — knocked out of the FA Cup by Plymouth Argyle, drawing with their arch-rivals for the last time at Goodison Park, nearly letting a 2-0 lead slip away against Wolves and then drawing 2-2 with Villa in midweek.
Next up: the reigning champions. More than that, the reigning champions looking to put both their 2-0 defeat at Anfield and a 6-3 aggregate loss to Real Madrid behind them.
Pep Guardiola’s men now have the FA Cup and Premier League to focus on, which could come back to haunt Liverpool’s title aspirations after this weekend.
Home is where Manchester City have been at their best against Liverpool over the years, losing only once in their last 15 Premier League games against the Reds — the last time being almost a decade ago during the Manuel Pellegrini era. Since then, Liverpool have lost eight and drawn six at the Etihad.
It’s a classic Premier League clash but also a battle of two countrymen having quite the season. Mohamed Salah’s 24 goals and 15 assists put him on track to rival some of the greats of the game and, ominously for the Citizens, he has also been involved in more league goals against City since 2016-17 than any other player, with eight goals and five assists.
On the other side of the coin is Salah’s Egypt team-mate Omar Marmoush, who scored a 14-minute hat-trick against Newcastle in his last game and registered 15 goals and 10 assists at Eintracht Frankfurt before his arrival in Manchester last month.
With both in scintillating form, 15/2 for both Salah and Marmoush to score anytime in this one could represent good value.
A win for Arne Slot and Liverpool would no doubt galvanise an already motivated team which, despite this ‘slump’, have still only lost one game in the top flight this season.
They were, though, also in a similar position this time last year and finished third at the end of their 2023/24 campaign. The pressure is definitely on.
City may be reeling, but their home record against their rivals speaks for itself. We’re calling it a draw but not without plenty of goals; a callback to the thrilling title races that defined the late 2010s.
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