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Golden Goals MD5: Early title implications as Arsenal meet Manchester City

BetMGM Golden Goals is back in full swing after the international break and it's offering up a star-studded slate on Matchday 5 – headlined by Arsenal vs Manchester City on Sunday.

Mikel Arteta’s side picked up a vital victory in the North London Derby a week ago but how will they fare when they face the team that has pipped them to consecutive Premier League titles?

Elsewhere, there is a West Midlands Derby between Aston Villa and Wolves, unbeaten Newcastle travel to Fulham and Tottenham will look to bounce back from derby day despair against Thomas Frank’s Brentford.

As always, the games analysed below are those featured in this week’s BetMGM Golden Goals. Simply predict all six correct scores to win up to £1 million – or a share of the £5,000 prizepool if no one gets all six. On Matchday 4, four players managed four correct scores to split the prizepool. You can learn more about Golden Goals here.

Aston Villa vs Wolves

Jhon Duran has ascended to cult hero status at Villa Park just four games into the new Premier League season.

The former Chicago Fire striker came to the rescue last weekend, lashing the ball into the top corner from 30 yards out to complete Villa’s comeback against Everton.

That goal was Duran’s third game-winning goal from three league games this season. No player has ever managed four from the bench in an entire season but the Colombian is worth a shout at 21/10 to score anytime.

Speaking of world-class finishes, Gary O’Neil’s Wolves were on the receiving end of two wonder goals from Fabian Schar and Harvey Barnes to condemn the Old Gold to their third defeat in four games to begin the campaign.

These strikes mean Wolves have conceded a league-high three goals from outside the box this season. Goalkeeper Jose Sa hasn’t done them any favours with his post-shot expected goals value – a metric used to assess a keeper’s ability to stop shots – a league-worst -3.3.

Wolves have only won one of their last 14 Premier League games and, since March, have lost more matches than any other team in the league (11). Wolves will eventually turn their fortunes around but it won’t be in this one – every sign points to a home victory.

Prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Wolves

Fulham vs Newcastle

Newcastle head to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham having made an unbeaten start to the Premier League season and sitting pretty in third place.

Sunday’s 2-1 win over Wolves at Molineux saw the Magpies come from behind, though they did not leave the West Midlands unscathed with Alexander Isak picking up a knock that leaves him a doubt for this one.

Fulham’s start to the season has been a mixed bag – a narrow opening day defeat at Old Trafford was followed by a win and a draw against newly promoted Ipswich Town and Leicester City. Last weekend, meanwhile, saw the Cottagers throw away a lead with virtually the last kick of the game as Danny Ings equalised for West Ham.

However, Emile Smith Rowe has so far proven a fine addition from Arsenal and provided the assist for Raul Jimenez against the Hammers – Fulham will be looking to him for inspiration, though they need to be more clinical with just four goals scored from their 34 chances created, leaving them fourth-bottom in shot conversion percentage.

Barnes missed much of last season for Newcastle through injury but has been the standout performer so far this term.

The winger’s winner against Spurs was followed by a stunning goal to pinch the three points at Wolves. Ominously for the Cottagers, Barnes has three goals in his last seven games against them.

Add to this the fact that Newcastle have not lost to the west Londoners since 2017 – winning the previous six – and it’s difficult to look past them returning north with three more points. Barnes to score in a Newcastle win is an enticing 7/1.

Prediction: Fulham 1-2 Newcastle

Tottenham vs Brentford

Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham have lost the last two league games, with a damaging North London Derby defeat to Arsenal on Sunday following a 2-1 reverse away at Newcastle.

Back-to-back home games do give them a chance to return to winning ways in the Premier League, with Brentford the visitors to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

The Bees have made a solid start to the campaign and gave champions Manchester City a scare at the Etihad last weekend, though Frank’s men have lost both of their away games – albeit the other was at Liverpool.

Summer signing Dominic Solanke is yet to get off the mark for Tottenham so will be eyeing up this one as a chance to score his first goal for the club – and with good reason.

Brentford have given up the third-highest penalty area touches per 90 in the division with 39.25 across their opening four games. This will be music to the ears of Solanke, who scored 17 of his 19 Premier League goals last season from inside the box.

History is on the side of the home side in this one too, with Brentford winning just once against Spurs since 1948. That win, though, did come at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in 2023, with the Bees winning 3-1 to take the points back across London on that occasion.

Both teams have scored in the last four meetings, and we expect that to continue in this one. Will Solanke break his duck? It’s 13/5 for him to find the back of the net and BTTS.

Prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Brentford

Crystal Palace vs Manchester United

Selhurst Park has been a bit of a graveyard for the Red Devils of late.

Indeed, they haven’t won in their previous four visits to this ground and, in that run, United have conceded six goals and scored just two while picking up two points from an available 12.

Last year’s total capitulation in the capital – a 4-0 thrashing that could have been even worse – was a line in the sand for lots of Manchester United fans but Erik ten Hag stayed on for another season and will look to right some wrongs.

The Eagles have had an indifferent start to the campaign with two points from their first four games. They have scored just four goals against an xG of 5.6, the latter total ranking higher in this metric than the likes of Arsenal, Newcastle and Tottenham.

Manchester United come into the game after a confidence-boosting 7-0 mauling of League One Barnsley in the EFL Cup and, despite losing two of their opening four league games, some underlying statistics suggest they are not far away from clicking.

They rank second for the xG metric in the league with 7.9 – only Manchester City have more with 9.2 – while the issues that plagued them last year have also come under control.

Last season, United conceded 5.34 shots on target per game, which was the fifth-poorest in the division. This campaign to date they have shipped just 3.0 shots on target per game, the joint-third fewest in the league.

It will be an away victory here.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-3 Manchester United

Brighton vs Nottingham Forest

Few would have predicted that this encounter would feature two unbeaten teams after five Premier League matches – especially Nottingham Forest.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s team finished 17th last season and were tipped for another season of struggle but the Portuguese manager has led his men to two wins and two draws to begin the term, including last weekend’s stunning 1-0 win at Anfield.

Morgan Gibbs-White has been an integral part of Forest’s stellar start to the campaign. He has created more chances from open play than anybody in the Premier League (11) and leads his team in expected assists into the bargain.

Gibbs-White will also have fond memories of his previous meetings with this weekend’s seaside opponents after scoring twice in the last three meetings, both from the penalty spot. Value could be found, then, in 11/1 for Forest to score from the spot.

After Liverpool’s loss last week, Fabian Hurzeler is the only newly-appointed Premier League manager to remain unbeaten with two wins and two draws from an opening quartet of fixtures that included matches against Manchester United and Arsenal.

In contrast to predecessor Roberto De Zerbi, Hurzeler is so far producing a defensively sound Brighton. Over four games this season, Brighton have conceded three times compared to the six they had shipped at this point last year.

Similarly, the Seagulls have conceded 2.4 goals less than expected which – small sample size notwithstanding – is the third-best in the division at this juncture.

Neither side will lose their undefeated streak in this one: it will end honours even in a low-scoring affair.

Prediction: Brighton 1-1 Nottingham Forest

Manchester City vs Arsenal

It’s already looking like a title decider and we haven’t even reached October yet.

Manchester City have a 100% Premier League win record and Erling Haaland has scored nine goals in four games – an incredible return from an extraordinary player and indeed the most scored by any player after four games of a Premier League season, eclipsing Wayne Rooney in 2011-12 (eight in four matches).

The menacing Norwegian is searching for his 100th goal for the Citizens – and you wouldn’t bet against him finding it given his recent form.

Arsenal, meanwhile, come into this one after an excellent win over North London rivals Tottenham last weekend.

A lot of the Gunners’ success is built on their defensive solidity; they have only conceded one goal in their first four games which is the joint-best record in the division and have kept nine clean sheets from their last 11 league away matches.

They have been rocked, though, by the news of Martin Odegaard’s injury. Their influential captain is viewed as a crucial component of the Arsenal press. Will they feel his absence?

The last three meetings between these two in all competitions have ended in under 2.5 goals and two of the last three have been level after 90 minutes. Another stalemate beckons.

Prediction: Manchester City 1-1 Arsenal

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Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change. Please note: This week's Golden Goals deadline is Saturday 21st September 15:00. Opt-in is required and you can find out more here.

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