2024-11-02

TOTTENHAM VS ASTON VILLA: 90/1 OPTA BET BUILDER

Neither Tottenham nor Aston Villa had a great time of it last weekend, with Spurs losing 1-0 away to previously winless Crystal Palace.

Villa’s point at home to Bournemouth, meanwhile, was not what they wanted having been leading going into stoppage time.

But Matchday 10 provides both teams with an opportunity to get back on track in the Premier League. Let's take a closer look using Opta data…

ASTON VILLA WORTH SIDING WITH

Tip 1 – Aston Villa to win @ 27/10

Tottenham’s defeat last weekend was their fourth in seven top-flight games, a run which leaves them eighth in the Premier League table.

While their midweek 2-1 victory over Manchester City in the EFL Cup will have been a welcome relief, it came with a caveat that their opposition had significantly rotated.

Outside Rico Lewis, the City starting XI included two squad numbers higher than 70 with Jacob Wright (56) and Jahmai Simpson-Pusey (99) coming on later as Erling Haaland was not used.

The result did give Spurs a sixth victory in seven home games in all competitions, though they have faced just one top-eight side – Arsenal – on their own patch in the league and were beaten 1-0 in September.

So it’s probably not a great time to face fourth-placed Aston Villa, who are unbeaten in seven league games. Like Tottenham, they failed to win last time out but, unlike Spurs in their loss to Crystal Palace, they did create enough to have beaten Bournemouth in their 1-1 draw last weekend.

Unai Emery’s side posted an expected goals (xG) total of 1.81 and had 18 shots on goal, compared to 0.31 from their opposition, which suggests they created enough opportunities to have taken all three points.

They face a Tottenham side that has occasionally been inconsistent under Ange Postecoglou and were somewhat beaten at their own game in their last league match.

Palace forced 19 high turnovers – a statistic defined by a player winning the ball within 40 metres of the opposition goal – which is the fourth-highest total of any team in the Premier League this season. Spurs, meanwhile, have two of the three highest totals within that specific metric.

The match-winning goal came from one of those after defender Micky van de Ven was forced into an error. The Dutch defender went off injured against Manchester City in midweek and a rotated backline is unlikely to be conducive to eradicating these problems.

While Spurs did earn an emphatic away win over Villa in March, they have lost the other three of their previous four meetings with them and Unai Emery’s side have won on their last two visits to this venue.

At a chunky 27/10, Villa are just about worth getting behind in this one.

GET READY FOR GOALS

Tip 2 – Both teams to score @ 21/50

Tip 3 – Over 2.5 goals @ 4/9

Regardless of who ends up taking the points, this match should provide great entertainment. Villa travel to the capital with both teams to score having landed in eight of their last nine domestic matches.

One of the greatest strengths of Emery’s side is their finishing ability. While they were unable to convert their chances against Bournemouth last weekend – thanks in part to an impressive goalkeeping performance from Mark Travers – they are the fourth-biggest xG overperformers in the Premier League.

They have a goals-scored-to-xG differential of 2.76, while they rank fourth for conversion rate, having scored from 14.29% of their 112 shots on goal up to now. They don’t need to be given a big sight of goal to make it count.

But it is noteworthy that Villa have conceded the most goals of any team inside the top four (11) while Emiliano Martinez has the third-worst save percentage (66.67%) of all ever-present goalkeepers this season.

Only Manchester City (20) and Chelsea (19) have scored more goals than Tottenham (18) so far, while they have also generated the second-highest xG (17.39) in the league behind leaders City. Spurs have scored an impressive 49 goals in 23 home league games under Postecoglou overall.

It is understandable why BTTS is as short as 21/50 while over 2.5 goals also looks a solid play at 4/9 given that both teams average at least three goals per game.

WATCH OUT FOR THE FLYING SWEDE

Tip 4 – Dejan Kulusevski to assist @ 18/5

Tip 5 – Morgan Rogers to score anytime @ 19/5

It’s hard to think of a Tottenham player who works harder with the ball than Dejan Kulusevski this season.

The Swede has carried the ball 1,115.31 metres forward in total during this campaign, which is the eighth-furthest among all Premier League players this season.

Those carries have resulted in seven chances created, six shots and one goal, while he has a total of three goal contributions (two goals, one assist) up to now, having also impressed against City in the cup.

He ranks fifth in the division for chance creation with 24 – just three short of leader Bukayo Saka – and a continuation of this creativity will surely see his numbers increase throughout the course of the season. At 18/5, Kulusevski is a good pick for an assist against Villa.

For the visitors, it’s worth looking towards Morgan Rogers for a goal at 19/5. The 22-year-old has scored twice already in the league this season and ranks second among the Villa squad for shots taken (17).

Rogers has taken at least two shots in three of his last four league appearances, while his overall average per game is 1.9, so it is worth considering backing him to have over 1.5 shots at 5/6.

GET READY FOR A FEW CARDS.

Tip 6 – Over 5.5 total cards @ 4/6

There were 13 yellows shown in Aston Villa’s 1-1 draw with Bournemouth last weekend, while there were nine cards – including two reds – in their 3-1 victory at Fulham prior to that.

Poor discipline seems to have followed Emery’s side around this season, with a total of 63 cards shown in their nine league games. That averages out at seven per match, while there have been at least five in each of their last seven matches.

Tottenham, meanwhile, have had an average of three of their own players booked per match in their last three at home. Given those stats, it is understandable that over 5.5 cards is priced at 4/6.

Just three players have conceded more fouls than Kulusevski (17), who has been booked three times, so far this season. He is 29/10 to pick up another yellow.