UEFA Nations League Matchday 6 Tips: Italy to Overcome France?
The group stage of the 2024-25 Nations League is nearing its climax and the final round of games prior to the knockout and playoff phases gets underway on Sunday.
The headline fixture is Italy’s visit from France while England also have an intriguing clash of their own, welcoming Ireland to Wembley as they aim to keep hold of top spot in Group B2.
We have picked out our three best bets for the day’s action.
England vs Ireland 3-way Handicap: Starts 0-1 @ 7/10
Lee Carsley’s time as England boss is coming to an end, with Thomas Tuchel taking over the permanent reins in the new year, and he will be looking to end a mixed interim spell on a high by beating the country he represented at playing level, Ireland, for a second time. He seems likely to get that wish too as the Three Lions will be feeling confident after turning the tables on Greece, who beat them 2-1 at Wembley last month, on Thursday, landing a commanding 3-0 victory in Athens.
Ireland beat the section basement boys Finland in Dublin at the same time but they were far from convincing in that victory, having less possession than their visitors, losing the shot count 14-13 and requiring an excellent save from Caoimhin Kelleher to deny Joel Pohjanpalo from the penalty spot.
A repeat of the pair’s respective Thursday performances will only result in a home win at Wembley, and it could be a convincing farewell for Carsley too.
Harry Kane started on the bench in Athens, with that unlikely to be the case again on Sunday. That is bad news for Ireland then, as Kane has netted 10 goals in his last eight England appearances at Wembley.
The Three Lions skipper has also scored 16 times in 14 matches for Bayern Munich this term and he is fancied to help England land a convincing victory over their rivals, with the hosts set to win by at least two goals.
Italy to beat France @ 17/10
Following a disappointing Euro 2024 in which they exited at the last-16 stage, Italy have enjoyed an excellent Nations League campaign, sitting top of a tough section with an unbeaten record.
The Azzurri have won four of their five matches - their record would likely be unblemished had Lorenzo Pellegrini not been sent off with his side 2-0 up against Belgium last month, a dismissal which led to a 2-2 draw - and can cap off an excellent group stage with a win over an unconvincing France.
Les Bleus flattered to deceive at Euro 2024, despite making the semi-finals. France’s four goals at the tournament came via two own goals, a penalty and a single strike from open play, and they have not looked much better in the Nations League.
Their campaign began with a 3-1 defeat to Italy in Paris and a 0-0 draw with Israel on Thursday suggests they may be beaten by the Azzurri, who beat Belgium 1-0 on the same evening, once again.
Benjamin Sesko anytime goalscorer vs Austria @ 14/5
Slovenia find themselves in an interesting position in Group B3 as while they currently sit in the relegation playoff spot, their fate is entirely in their own hands.
With the standings decided by head-to-head results, a win over Austria would see them leapfrog their opponents and finish in the top two.
With that in mind, the usually cautious Matjaz Kek may employ a more attacking approach in Vienna and try to outscore the Austrians, a gameplan which will only increase Slovenian hot shot Benjamin Sesko’s chances of finding the net.
The RB Leipzig forward has enjoyed a decent season, especially in the Champions League where he has netted three times in four games, and he is, by some distance, his national side’s biggest goal threat.
Sesko has netted five of Slovenia’s six goals in this season’s Nations League and having scored in the reverse fixture, looks a decent price to bag again against Austria, who have managed only two clean sheets in their last 12 games.
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Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation