Megan Nicholls Racing Preview: Ayr and Newbury Tips
SATURDAY RACING TIPS
Ayr 1.10 – Handicap Chase
I like the look of Homme Public (6/1) here.
He’s very consistent over both hurdles and fences and his second on his penultimate start at Doncaster behind Brookie looks solid form now.
Brookie was a very good second in a Grade One at Aintree subsequently, where he beat the likes of L’Eau du Sud, so if Homme Public runs up that sort of level again he should go close off a mark of 140.
Megan’s Tips: Homme Public WIN
Newbury 1.25 – John Porter Stakes
Over at Newbury, the Flat action is beginning to ramp up and I’m keen on Ancient Wisdom (11/4) in the John Porter.
As a two-year-old he always looked like a horse who was going to improve when stepped up in distance and he showed that last season with some good performances, including when second to Economics in the Dante.
He won the Bahrain Trophy at the July Course at Newmarket after a solid enough run in the Derby and I think he might have a bit too much pace for Sunway (6/4 fav) on this sort of ground.
Megan’s Tip: Ancient Wisdom WIN
Ayr 1.43 – Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase
Speaking of consistent horses, the same applies to Masaccio (10/3 fav).
He’s run five times over fences and has failed to finish outside of the first three and another big run looks on the cards.
He ran a belter in the Plate at Cheltenham with first-time cheekpieces and the step up to three miles looks likely to suit as he was a little outpaced over 2m 4f there before staying on strongly up the run-in.
The form of that run has been boosted subsequently and he looks a solid a favourite.
Megan’s Tip: Masaccio WIN
Newbury 2.00 – Fred Darling Stakes
This looks like a hot contest but, on official ratings, Simmering (SP) is the one to beat and I think that’s fair.
She held her form really well last year and her second to Lake Victoria at the Curragh looks very solid now, with that filly winning two Group Ones since.
Ollie Sangster has had a couple of winners recently and his stable star can get her season off to a flyer here.
Megan’s Tip: Simmering WIN
Ayr 2.15 – Scottish Champion Hurdle
The Paul Nicholls team have really hit form in recent weeks at are operating at a nearly 30% strike rate and I’m hoping the purple patch continues with Kabral Du Mathan (3/1) in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.
Willie Mullins’ Ethical Diamond (5/2 fav) sets the standard after her good fourth in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and she’s only one pound higher here – but she’s got to give five pounds to my dad’s runner.
Kabral Du Mathan was really impressive on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton and has run really twice since at Ascot and Windsor.
He didn’t really handle the track at Windsor last time and, with Ayr much more to his liking, he could still be nicely handicapped.
Megan’s Tips: Kabral Du Mathan WIN
Newbury 2.35 – Greenham Stakes
There are loads in here that are open to huge amounts of improvement and the one I like is Jonquil (7/2).
Previously trained by the now-retired Sir Michael Stoute, Andrew Balding’s son of Lope De Vega was really impressive on debut at Sandown and that form has been given real substance as the horse he just touched off has won by over five lengths since.
He was disappointing in The Flying Scotsman at Doncaster after that but he was weak in the betting and it’s a run I’m prepared to forgive.
Jonquil looks the type to take a big step forward from two to three and I can see him being quite smart this campaign.
Megan’s Tip: Jonquil WIN
Ayr 2.55 – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
This looks wide open and we’ll need all of BetMGM’s four places each way here!
I’ll have a few quid on Ruby Island (5/1), who won goes well at Ayr having won two of her three starts at the track. She finished second on the other start so it’s a course she loves.
Her win last time was her first in over two years and the step up in trip seemed to really help her and she looks a mare with plenty of stamina so I’m not surprised her trainer, Nicky Richards, is keen to run her over even further in three miles here.
Megan’s Tip: Ruby Island WIN
Newbury 3.12 – Spring Cup
This is a typically open Spring Cup but I do think James McHenry (5/1 fav) has a very solid chance on his second in the Cambridgeshire from last season.
He beat all bar one in a very competitive field and the winner was clearly the proverbial ‘Group horse in a handicap’ so it was a mighty run.
He’s up three pounds but I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this horse yet and I like his chances.
Trainer Charlie Hills has been amongst the winners recently and I thought his Cogitate (9/1) was interesting with extra places on offer.
He bolted up on his racecourse debut at this track and ran perfectly well when fifth in the Acomb at York after that.
He was gelded before a good run on the all-weather at Kempton in November and he might just end up being a bit better than a mark of 87.
Megan’s Tip: James McHenry WIN; Cogitate EW
Ayr 3.35 – Scottish Grand National
BetMGM is paying six places on the Scottish Grand National and, perhaps unsurprisingly given his exploits at Aintree last weekend, Willie Mullins has a very strong hand.
Chosen Witness (5/1 fav) has been well-backed for this but I actually prefer the father-son combination that roared to success in the Grand National.
Patrick Mullins rides Olympic Man (15/2) and he looks very interesting to me.
He’s very lightly raced for an eight-year-old and I think we might see huge amounts of improvement now he tackles a marathon distance in a handicap.
His trainer has campaigned him solely in beginners’ chases over fences so far but on breeding – his sire produced the likes of 2023 Grand National runner-up Vanilier – he could really come into his own over this sort of distance.
Given that he did really well to win over 2m 4f last time at Naas and showed plenty of speed – something we know you now need in these staying handicap chases – and I can see him running a big race.
The Irish clearly have a very strong hand but, for the home team, I could see Surrey Quest (9/1) running well.
He was a very close second in this race 12 months ago and, while he’s six pounds higher this time round, he’s kept his form well this season including a good third in the Edinburgh National last time.
As long as the ground isn’t too quick, he can run well again.
Megan’s Tips: Olympic Man WIN; Surrey Quest EW
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Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation