Italy vs Wales: Six Nations Betting Tips
It’s only round two of the 2025 Six Nations but already Saturday’s clash between Italy and Wales has been billed as the Wooden Spoon decider.
Wales finished bottom of the pile last year following defeat to the Azzurri in Cardiff on the final weekend, and they are underdogs in Rome, where they have won on their last eight visits.
Italy are favourites for only the second time in their Six Nations history - they were odds-on to beat Scotland in the final round in 2008 and edged home 23-20 - and are the shortest price they have ever been to win a match in the tournament.
Tip 1 – Wales +7.5 handicap @ 3/4
Italy had their best Six Nations campaign in 2024, beating Wales and Scotland and drawing with France, while Wales lost the lot as part of their ongoing record sequence of 13 defeats.
That’s quite a turnaround for the Azzurri given they went five consecutive tournaments from 2017 to 2021 without a single victory but it’s worth remembering that wins are still few and far between for Italy and when they have come they have almost always been tight.
In 2007 Italy recorded their biggest Six Nations victory, stunning Scotland 37-17 at Murrayfield. Since then they have won 14 games against tier-one teams - they’ve beaten all their Six Nations rivals bar England and also picked up wins over Argentina, South Africa and Australia. But none of those wins has been by more than seven points.
Last year’s successes came by scorelines of 24-21 in Wales and 31-29 at home to Scotland, while their previous victory in the tournament that ended their long winless run was a 22-21 triumph, which came thanks to a late try and injury-time conversion.
Wales failed to score a point in their opening defeat last week but while their attack failed to fire they were up against a France side who excel at keeping teams pinned back, mainly through the precise and powerful kicking of scrum-half Antoine Dupont.
They should create chances against a less clinical Italy team and while they have a young side there is experience and a cutting edge in the back three in the shape of Liam Williams and Josh Adams, while the return of Test centurion Taulupe Faletau in the back row gives them another ball-carrying threat.
Given their long losing record there is sure to be an emphasis in the Wales line-up on keeping things under control, minimising risk and keeping a lid on the game and all of that can contribute to another tight scoreline.
Tip 2 – Under 44.5 points @ 21/20
While Wales were nilled in Paris last week, Italy managed only one try against Scotland from a fortunate interception run in almost from the halfway line.
Italy have more of an attacking threat these days with dangerous backs such as Tommaso Menoncello, Ange Capuozzo and Monty Ioane. But they have posted the lowest try total in the Six Nations in each of the last six years, failing to hit double figures for an average of two per game in the last five.
The try scoring rate in the Six Nations and in the game across Europe is on the rise, not least because teams so often turn down the chance of kicking for the posts when awarded a penalty and prefer to take the chance of going for the corner, or a tap and go as Scotland did successfully last week.
But it will be interesting to see if this game follows that trend given how much is at stake and a possible lack of confidence. No player had more kicks at goal in round one than Italy fly-half/fullback Tommaso Allan, who landed four out of four.
The last two meetings between these two in Rome have gone over Saturday’s total points tip line of 44.5 but six of the previous seven fell short and we could be in for another low-scoring scrap.
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Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation