Scotland vs Wales: Six Nations Betting Tips
This is an opportunity for both sides to respond to setbacks and try to put a positive spin on disappointing Six Nations campaigns.
Scotland lost the Calcutta Cup to England last time out in a match they know they should have won given their dominance of possession, territory and all the attacking stats, while Wales, now on a losing run of 15 matches, looked better in defeat to title favourites Ireland in round three.
There doesn’t seem to be much for either side to gain from holding back and we could be in for an entertaining clash at Murrayfield.
Scotland vs Wales Betting Tips
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Scotland have made just one change to the starting line-up that lost at Twickenham as Darcy Graham, who was ruled out of that match due to concussion, starts on the wing instead of Kyle Rowe.
Wales interim coach Matt Sherratt, who brought back experienced fly-half Gareth Anscombe to face Ireland after Warren Gatland’s selection of Cardiff centre Ben Thomas in the opening rounds, sticks with the same starting team, making just two changes to his bench.
Tip 1 – Scotland to win by 1-12 points @ 11/5
Wales suffered their heaviest defeat to Scotland on their last visit to Murrayfield in 2023, losing 35-7, and they are 16.5-point handicap underdogs for Saturday’s return to Edinburgh.
It’s plain that Wales have fallen a long way in a short period of time, and while many pointed the finger at Warren Gatland, his departure also seemed like an admission that there was nothing he could do.
Interim coach Matt Sherratt wasn’t able to deliver a winning start against Ireland but there seemed to be more stability in the side with Anscombe pulling the strings. Wales led at half-time and a nine-point defeat was comfortably inside the 23-point handicap.
Victory might again be too much to ask of this Wales side, but they showed enough spirit and solid attacking play to suggest they can keep it close.
Scotland outscored England three tries to one at Twickenham and were well in front on all the attacking stats. But the bottom line was that on 10 occasions they worked their way into the England 22 but came away with no points.
That lack of ruthlessness may well have been emphasised in the two weeks’ preparation the teams have had, and Scotland are boosted by the return of tricky winger Darcy Graham.
However, Wales made life hard for Ireland two weeks ago and Scotland may well be happy to dig out a victory and get back on track.
Tip 2 – Over 46.5 points @ 7/10
Wales are the lowest scorers in the tournament so far this year with four tries while Scotland have the meanest defence having shipped just six.
Those trends may be bucked in this showdown as the pressure is off to an extent and the incentive is there for both teams to play with ambition.
Gregor Townsend’s arrival as Scotland coach has coincided with the emergence of some real attacking threat and the figures are stark. In 44 Six Nations matches at home before Townsend took over Scotland scored a total of 53 tries. In 19 home matches under him they have surpassed that mark with 54.
Scotland’s last three home matches in this tournament have all hit the 50-point mark, but it’s not all about the hosts.
Flanker Jac Morgan and winger Tom Rogers both scored for Wales against Ireland and their attack looked more co-ordinated and purposeful than in their opener against France, when they were beaten to nil.
Penalty attempts at goal are likely to be eschewed in favour of kicks to the corner and reaching a total of 47 points looks a modest expectation in this game.
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