UFC Fight Night 250: Adesanya vs Imavov Betting Tips
Israel Adesanya faces rising star Nassourdine Imavov in the main event of this UFC Fight Night in Saudi Arabia.
The match-up sees former two-time middleweight champion Adesanya competing in his first non-title fight since 2019.
The stacked card from Riyadh sees an exciting stylistic clash between Shara Magomedov and Michael “Venom” Page in the co-main event, as well as a crossroads fight between hard-hitting heavyweights Sergei Pavlovich and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Tip 1 — Israel Adesanya to Win & Over 3.5 Rounds - 57/50
Israel Adesanya (24-4-0) and Nassourdine Imavov (15-4-0) are both looking to put themselves into the title conversation.
Adesanya is a two-time champion who was last seen looking to pick up the belt for a third time when coming up short against Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 304 in August 2024.
The 35-year-old was submitted for the first time in his career in the fourth round of a back-and-forth fight.
The defeat marked the end of a remarkable run of 12 fights in championship class for Adesanya, which also included a step up to light heavyweight in 2021, when he lost a decision to Jan Błachowicz.
Adesanya has faced and beaten most opponents at 185lbs, with an initial six-defence title run which saw him defeat Robert Whittaker (twice), Jared Cannonier, Marvin Vettori, Paulo Costa and Yoel Romero.
A win and a loss to long-time kickboxing rival Alex Pereira between 2022 and 2023 was an iconic doubleheader which saw both fighters' star power go through the roof.
A defeat to Sean Strickland at UFC 293 in September 2023 ended Adesanya’s run, with the subsequent defeat to Du Plessis meaning he finds himself on a two-fight losing skid for the first time in his MMA career.
A loss to Strickland in January 2023 dented Nassourdine Imavov’s early hype, with victory for the American at the Apex ending a three-fight win streak that had seen the Frenchman enter the rankings.
The frustration continued for Imavov with a no contest against Chris Curtis later in the year before an improved 2024 saw wins over fellow top-10 contenders Roman Dolidze, Jared Cannonier and Brendan Allen.
That run saw Imavov end the year as the fifth-ranked middleweight and potentially one win away from title opportunity.
The 29-year-old has good grappling and works well in the clinch, while also he looks to outstrike his opponents, with Strickland the only fighter he hasn’t had a higher significant strikes output against.
However, the pair are closely matched in the striking stats, with Imavov landing 4.51 significant strikes per minute to Adesanya’s 4.00, while their strikes absorbed are pretty much identical at around 3.20 per minute.
In his last fight Adesanya showed that he can withstand a high pace even against someone as powerful and unorthodox as Du Plessis, while his striking and takedown defence remained strong.
The former champion also has a five-inch reach advantage which will suit his style and Adesanya is the pick to hold his position.
Tip 2 – Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Michael Page - Over 2.5 rounds - 4/11
The co-main event between Shara “Bullet” Magomedov (15-0-0) and Michael “Venom” Page (22-3-0) looks set to be a potentially exciting clash between two unorthodox strikers.
Magomedov entered the UFC in late 2023 with a unanimous decision win over Bruno Silva and he really gained momentum last year.
The 30-year-old took three fights with two Performance of the Night finishes over Antonio Trócoli in March and in his last outing against Armen Petrosyan in October.
The second-round double-spinning backfist finish of Petrosyan was spectacular and moved “Shara Bullet” into the top 15 of the middleweight rankings.
Sandwiched in between these finishes was a Fight of the Night unanimous decision win over Michał Oleksiejczuk, where Magomedov showed his superior striking and resilience against a tough opponent.
Michael Page arrived in the UFC in 2024 after a 17-2 stint in rival promotion Bellator, where he gained notoriety for his unique style.
The 37-year-old won on his Octagon debut against Kevin Holland in March before coming up short over three rounds against Ian Machado Garry in June.
Page has campaigned at welterweight so far, and this middleweight fight is something the Londoner has described as a “one-off”.
Magomedov has landed 6.82 significant strikes per minute in the UFC but has absorbed 4.49 while Page has had to be more patient with just 2.38 significant strikes landed per minute and 1.45 absorbed.
Page has shown glimpses of how devastating his low hand-point karate style can be, with Magomedov potentially looking like the perfect opponent to bring out the best in his striking.
This could be a chess match early on and while both men will be trying to outdo each other with their stand-up skills, this one could be heading for the judges scorecards or even a late finish.
Tip 3 – Sergey Pavlovich to Win & Under 1.5 Rounds - 13/20
Sergei Pavlovich (18-3-0) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-5-0) face off with both men packing knockout power.
After losing on his UFC debut to Alistair Overeem in 2018, Pavlovich stormed to a shot at the interim heavyweight title by putting together a six-fight winning streak that saw him finish all of his opponents in the first round, including Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa and Curtis Blaydes.
Jon Jones’ injury saw the UFC put together an interim heavyweight title bout in November 2023, when the Russian lost to Tom Aspinall just over a minute into the first round.
The 32-year-old returned in June last year, where he lost a unanimous decision to fellow Russian Alexander Volkov.
Now 6-3 in the UFC, Pavlovich has seen eight of his nine fights ending in KO/TKO, with six wins.
Rozenstruik comes into this on a two-fight winning run for the first time since 2019.
The 36-year-old sealed a split-decision win over Tai Tuivasa last August, while he kicked off 2024 by retiring Shamil Gaziev at the end of the fourth round in March.
Rozenstruik is 9-5 in the UFC but has seen his career become stop-start since 2020, where he is 5-5.
His other wins in this time have come against Junior dos Santos, Augusto Sakai and Chris Daukaus, while he has lost to Francis Ngannou, Ciryl Gane, Curtis Blaydes, Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida, who make up four of the top six in the current rankings.
The Suriname fighter is ranked ninth and eight of his nine UFC wins have come by KO/TKO.
Pavlovich is ranked fourth in the division and looks leaner coming into this bout as he bids to overcome the cardio issues he suffered in the defeat to Volkov.
Eighteen of their combined UFC fights have ended by KO/TKO and Pavlovich could well be the one to get back on track and put in a statement performance.
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Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change