UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas 2 Main Event & Undercard Tips
The UFC kicks off their 2025 with a rematch in the women’s Strawweight division as Mackenzie Dern faces Amadan Ribas.
The pair first fought in 2019 when both were early in their UFC careers with Ribas coming out on top.
Some eyecatching Dana White Contender Series alumni get their first official taste of UFC action on this card, while the co-main event sees veteran welterweights Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlston Harris square off.
Tip 1 - Amanda Ribas to win - 1/2
Mackenzie Dern (14-5-0) and Amanda Ribas (13-5-0) look to put themselves in title conversation at Strawweight in this first main event of the year.
Number six ranked Dern got back in the win column in August by winning a unanimous decision over Lupita Godinez.
Prior to that the 31-year-old had suffered back to back losses to Amanda Lemos (decision) and Jéssica Andrade (TKO).
The BJJ black belt is 9-5 in the UFC and has seen four of her wins come by submission.
Dern has improved her striking working with Jason Parillo in recent times but was completely outstruck by Ribas in their first encounter in 2019.
Ribas landed 74 significant strikes to Dern’s 20 to take the fight by unanimous decision.
The Brazilian is ranked at number eight in the division but was most recently seen competing at Flyweight, losing a five-round main event by unanimous decision to Rose Namajunas.
That defeat was in March last year with the 31-year-old taking some time off to let her body recover from a spell of four fights in 12 months.
Ribas is 7-4 in the UFC but is 2-3 as a Flyweight and crucially 5-1 as a Strawweight, while she also has a win over the now number 3 ranked fighter at 115 lb Virna Jandiroba.
Like Dern, she is a BJJ blackbelt but also a Judo specialist with good kick boxing.
It feels like back at her favoured weight Ribas will have more tools in her arsenal than Dern and can secure a win here.
Tip 2 - Santiago Ponzinibbio to win - 7/10
This is a fun co-main event between Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-8-0) and Carlston Harris (19-6-0).
Ponzinibbio has struggled for wins after returning from a three-year absence in 2021, going 2-5 since his comeback against top-level opposition.
The 38-year-old is on a two fight skid losing to Muslim Salikhov (split) and Kevin Holland (TKO), with his last win coming in December 2022 with a third round KO of Alex Morono.
His other defeats since 2021 have come against the likes of Michel Pereira, Geoff Neal and Li Jingliang, while the Argentinian also secured a “Fight of the Night” win against Miguel Baeza during this time.
Prior to his layoff through injury, Ponzinibbio had racked up an eight fight win streak against the likes of Mike Perry, Neil Magny and Sean Strickland.
Meanwhile, Harris was on a two fight winning streak before being TKO’d in the first round by Khaos Williams in his last outing in May.
The 37-year-old has wins over Jeremiah Wells (sub), Jared Gooden (UD), Impa Kasanganay (TKO) and Christian Aguilera (sub), while his only other UFC defeat came at the hands of now number one contender Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Ponzinibbio remains tough and will throw plenty of volume here with the stats showing he lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute, compared with Harris’ 3.18.
The Argentinian does generally take more damage with his come-forward approach, but Harris doesn’t tend to look for big volume and may well be tentative after being stopped by Williams in the first round of his last outing.
Ponzinibbio is performing better than his recent record suggests and is the pick to get back in the win column here.
Tip 3 - Austin Bashi to win + Marco Tulio to win - 3/5 double
Dana White’s Contender Series has seen the birth of several top stars in recent years and Austin Bashi (13-0-0) and Marco Tulio (12-1-0) both get their first taste of UFC action here after impressing on the show.
Undefeated Bashi takes on Christian Rodriguez, who has a 4-2 record in the UFC and is coming off the back of a first round submission loss to Julian Erosa in July.
Bashi has a big wrestling pedigree and although he can be wild on the feet, is facing an opponent who is not known for his power in his stand-up.
The 23-year-old submitted Dorian Ramos in the second round of his DWCS contest, securing 10 of his 15 takedown attempts.
Rodriguez went the distance in defeat to Raul Rosas Jr so this will be a good test of where the highly rated Bashi is at.
Tulio had to win twice on the Contender Series, finally earning a contract with a second round TKO of Matthieu Duclos in August, connecting with a perfect spinning back kick before ending the fight on the ground.
In 2023, the Brazilian defeated Yousri Belgaroui, who had fought both Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya in kickboxing, by decision on the show but was not awarded a contract.
Tulio, who is on an eight-fight win streak in all organisations, faces Ihor Potieria on this card with the Ukrainian 2-5 in the UFC so far.
Potieria is on a two fight skid losing to César Almeida (Dec) and Michel Pereira (sub), while he has also lost to Rodolfo Bellato (TKO), Carlos Ulberg (TKO) and Nicolae Negumereanu (TKO).
The 28-year-old has wins over Robert Bryczek and Maurício Rua and while he is a fun fighter to watch, his come-forward style hasn’t proved to be successful against technical strikers like Tulio.
Both Bashi and Tulio are heavy favourites to win so parlaying them together gives us some added interest throughout the card.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation