UFC Fight Night: Moreno Vs Erceg Fight Card Tips
The UFC returns to Mexico City with Brandon Moreno stepping up his bid to become a three-time flyweight champion as he faces recent title challenger Steve Erceg in the main event.
Manuel Torres and Drew Dober serve up a firecracker of a co-main event, while a featured bout on the main card sees Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer going to war at middleweight.
Here we look at some of the best bets from a card stacked with Mexican talent.
Tip 1 – Brandon Moreno to win & over 2.5 rounds @ 7/10
Brandon Moreno (22-8-2) can successfully come through his clash with Steve Erceg (12-3-0).
Moreno is a former two-time flyweight champion with his title reigns defined by four bouts against Deiveson Figueiredo.
The pair's first fight ended in a majority draw in 2020, while Moreno won the title from the Brazilian by a third-round rear-naked-choke in 2021.
Figueiredo won the trilogy by unanimous decision in 2021 before Moreno ended the rivalry with a third-round win via doctor stoppage in 2023.
Losing the belt to current champion Alexandre Pantoja in a split decision at UFC 290 was a blow to Moreno, who also lost a close fight with Brandon Royval at the start of 2024.
However, the Mexican bounced back and looked better than ever when outpointing Amir Albazi over five rounds in November.
Erceg has had an interesting UFC run and fought for the title in his fourth contest following three wins.
The 29-year old pushed champion Alexandre Pantoja hard over five rounds at UFC 301 in Brazil last May before being TKOd in the first round by Kai Kara-France at UFC 305 in August.
Erceg was caught cold and although he can do better, he has landed a tougher match-up now.
Both fighters are similar in terms of striking output and defence but the quality of Moreno’s all-round game, his pacing and top-level experience set him apart.
Tip 2 - Manuel Torres to win vs Drew Dober @ 9/10
There are some exciting match-ups on this card with Manuel Torres (15-3-0) and Drew Dober (27-14-0, 1 NC) expected to provide one of the most thrilling bouts.
The all-action Torres is never in a dull fight and is returning after his first UFC loss last September when he was stopped by Ignacio Bahamondes in a first-round firefight.
The defeat has aged relatively well with Bahamondes going on to make a big statement with a first-round submission of Jalin Turner at UFC 313 earlier this month to enter the top 15.
Torres opened up his UFC tenure with three first-round finishes against Chris Duncan (submission), Nikolas Motta (TKO) and Frank Camacho (TKO).
Dober is on a two-fight skid, losing to Jean Silva (doctor stoppage) and recent late-notice title challenger Renato Moicano (decision).
The 36-year-old is 13-10 1 NC in the UFC and while he brings vast experience, the American has tasted victory only once in the past two years with a first-round TKO of Ricky Glenn in 2023.
Dober has power, particularly in his left hand, with nine TKO finishes from his 13 wins making him a fun fighter to watch.
However the defeat to Jean Silva last time out, who moved up from featherweight, showed that he is now susceptible to younger, faster strikers.
Torres possesses the speed and power to hang in the top 20 of the 155lb division and can win on home turf.
Tip 3 - Ronaldo Rodriguez to win vs Kevin Borjas @ 3/5
Two flyweights open up the main card as Ronaldo Rodriguez (17-2-0) and Kevin Borjas (9-3-0) go head to head.
Rodriguez is undoubtedly tough, having overcome some early adversity to gain a unanimous decision win over Ode Osbourne in September.
It was a solid test for the Mexican, with 10-fight UFC veteran Osbourne bringing plenty of speed and skill despite now having a losing record inside the Octagon.
That victory took the 25-year-old Rodriguez’s UFC record to 2-0 following a debut rear-naked-choke victory over Denys Bondar last February.
Rodriguez is still learning on the job at UFC level but has shown plenty in his first 19 fights. Borjas is on shaky ground having yet to win in two attempts in the UFC, losing on his debut to Joshua Van before suffering a second-round TKO defeat to Alessandro Costa last May.
In that fight Borjas took a lot of damage in the second round and was barely able to stand after some nasty leg kicks from Costa, which led to the finishing sequence.
Rodriguez is a strong wrestler and boxer but also has heart and grit in abundance and can secure a home victory.