UFC 311 Betting Tips & Predictions

Islam Makhachev looks to extend his run as Lightweight champion by beating Arman Tsarukyan for a second time at UFC 311.

The pair face off in a rematch of their 2020 encounter in the main event, while the co-main event sees Merab Dvalishvili look to defend his Bantamweight title for the first time against Nurmagomedov.

The stacked card also sees some fascinating match-ups between the likes of former Light Heavyweight champions Jiří Procházka and Jamahal Hill, as well as top ten Lightweights Renato Moicano and Beneil Dariush.

Tip 1 - Makhachev, Islam to Win & Over 2.5 Rounds - 12/25

This eagerly anticipated rematch sees champion Islam Makhachev (26-1-0) look to defend his Lightweight strap for a fourth time against Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0).

The pair first faced off in 2020, with Makhachev getting a unanimous points win in what was Tsarukyan’s short notice UFC debut.

Tsarukyans’ performance against Makhachev in the first fight was impressive despite the defeat.

The Armenian was able to defend five of Makhachev’s nine takedown attempts, reversing many positions and became the first to score a takedown on the Dagestan fighter.

Tsarukyan also landed a similar amount of significant strikes to Makhachev, but did throw more volume.

Four years on from that debut performance Tsarukyan’s UFC record now stands at 9-2 and he is on a four fight winning streak.

The 28-year-old has been able to defeat some top level opponents such as Joaquim Silva, Beneil Dariush and Charles Oliveira in his run to this title opportunity.

In the split decision win over Oliveira, Tsarukyan showed his heart and undoubted skillset as he was able to have success in the grappling and striking departments against the former champion.

Makhachev won the vacant title against the Brazilian in the autumn of 2022 with a second round submission.

Now 33-years-old with a UFC record of 15-1, the champion has finished seven out of eight opponents since 2021, with only his first fight with Alexander Volkanovski going the distance.

These wins include against Oliveira, the rematch with Volkanovski and over former interim champion Dustin Poirier, who Makhachev fought last time out in June, ending the fight with a fifth round submission.

Makhachev needed every inch of that championship class and experience to get past a dogged Poirier, who knew this was his last shot at becoming a unified champion.

Tsarukyan looks more than a solid challenger and with his record showing he is durable this one is likely to be settled late or by the judges; but the champion is the pick to retain his title.

Tip 2 - Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill, To Go The Distance - No - 33/100

An all action Light Heavyweight tussle awaits as former champions Jiří Procházka (30-5-1) and Jamahal Hill (12-2-0) clash.

Both men were stopped by champion Alex Pereira in their last outings in 2024, as they failed to regain the titles they once held.

For Procházka, it was a second attempt at dethroning the Brazilian, losing by second round TKO in both contests in June 2024 and November 2023.

Sandwiched in between was a second round TKO of Aleksandar Rakić at UFC 300 in April.

The Czech fighter won the title from Glover Teixeira in June 2022 but had to vacate the title ahead of a rematch due to a serious shoulder injury.

Hill was the beneficiary of Procházka’s misfortune, stepping in to win the vacant title against the Brazilian veteran at UFC 283 in January 2023.

However, the American never defended his crown, having to vacate his belt due to a ruptured achilles suffered whilst playing basketball.

Hill has a 6-2-1 NC UFC record with four wins coming by KO/TKO, stopping Thiago Santos, Johnny Walker, Jimmy Crute and Ovince St. Preux.

Win or lose, Hill has only ever gone the distance twice in the UFC against Glover Teixeira and Darko Stošić.

Procházka has yet to see the final bell in the UFC, last seeing the judges scorecards when fighting for RIZIN in 2016.

Both men possess big power and regularly deliver knockout wins, while both also have vulnerabilities that have seen them stopped, so this one could well be an early night for either.

Tip 3 - Moicano, Renato to win by Finish - 33/20

Top ten lightweights Renato Moicano (20-5-1) and Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) clash with both men in contrasting form of late.

At 35-years-old and a 17-fight UFC veteran, Moicano is enjoying a new lease of life as he currently rides a four fight winning streak and a surge in popularity.

“Money” Moicano secured three of those victories in 2024 and was last seen winning in Paris in September, stopping home fighter Benoit Saint-Denis in two rounds.

The doctor stepped in to call the fight off due to an eye injury suffered by the Frenchman following some ferocious early ground and pound.

A stoppage of Jalin Turner in the second round at UFC 300 in April was another highlight, with the year kicking off with a unanimous decision win over Drew Dober in February.

Dariush on the other hand did not compete in 2024 after suffering back to back first round TKO’s in 2023.

The American's last opponent was Arman Tsarukyan in December 2023, who ended their fight on the ground just over a minute into the contest after being caught with a right hand.

Charles Oliveira also finished him by TKO earlier in the year, again with ground and pound.

Coming into 2023 Dariush had racked up an eight-fight winning streak with victories over the likes of Mateusz Gamrot, Tony Ferguson and Diego Ferreira.

Both men have eerily similar overall records and are both solid grapplers with plenty of submissions on their record (Moicano six and Dariush five).

Moicano looks to have the edge here with his form and his viciousness in looking to finish fights making him a solid pick to keep his winning run going.