UFC 312 Betting Tips
A highly anticipated rematch between Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland takes place at UFC 312 in Sydney Australia this weekend.
The pair first met last January at UFC 297, where Du Plessis won his title in what was a razor close decision.
The co-main event sees the women's Strawweight title on the line as champion Weili Zhang faces off against the unbeaten Tatiana Suarez.
Tip 1 - (C) Dricus Du Plessis to Win & Over 2.5 Rounds – 19/20
Dricus Du Plessis (22-2-0) and Sean Strickland (29-6-0) meet again after going to war in their first fight last January.
A split decision in Du Plessis’ favour saw him take the title from the American, in what was his first defence since becoming champion.
The stats showed Strickland outstruck Du Plessis in rounds one and five, which he was given by all three judges.
The South African was awarded rounds two and four by all three judges when he was able to gain success on the feet and with some of his takedowns, leaving round three as the one the judges disputed.
UFC President Dana White came out immediately and stated he felt Strickland won the fight, however an immediate rematch was never booked.
Instead the South African defended his title last August against former champion and long time rival Israel Adesanya.
Du Plessis handed Adesanya his first submission loss in the UFC, locking in a face crank after some back and forth rounds.
That victory saw the 31-year-old take his UFC record to a perfect 8-0, with his unorthodox and often wild style proving too difficult to handle.
Du Plessis boasts six stoppage wins in total with four KO/TKO’s and two submissions, finishing the likes of Robert Whittaker, Derek Brunson and Darren Till.
Strickland’s path back to a shot at the title came after he won a split decision over Paulo Costa in June.
Prior to facing Du Plessis, the 33-year-old took the belt in an impressive shutout victory over Israel Adesanya in September 2023.
It was an unlikely title shot for Strickland who had beaten up-and-coming but lower-ranked Abus Magomedov and Nassourdine Imavov prior to his title shot.
The American’s UFC record now stands at 16-6, with a total of 15 going the distance, including 11 of his wins.
Against someone with as much forward pressure as Du Plessis, the usually defensively sound Strickland may have to take more chances in order to not suffer the same fate on the scorecards.
Another close encounter is expected here and Du Plessis can retain his title as we move into the second half of the fight, or on the judges scorecards.
Tip 2 – Tatiana Suarez by Submission - 27/10
The second Championship fight in this card sees an interesting battle for the Women's Strawweight title between champion Weili Zhang (25-3-0) and first-time title challenger Tatiana Suarez (11-0-0).
Seven of Zhang’s last eight outings have been in title class, while she is also a two-time champion.
The now 35-year-old recaptured the belt with a second round submission of Carla Esparza at UFC 281 in November 2022.
Zhang has made two defences in her second run, adopting a more grappling heavy approach in decision wins over Amanda Lemos and Xiaonan Yan.
In both contests, the Chinese superstar secured six takedowns, more than in any other of her UFC fights so far.
Zhang first secured the belt in 2019, knocking out Jéssica Andrade 42 seconds into the first round, before defending in a wild fight with Joanna Jędrzejczyk.
She is 9-2 in the UFC, with the only blemishes on her record losing a double-header to Rose Namajunas in 2021.
Suarez, meanwhile, brings a perfect 10-0 record to the contest in a career plagued by injuries.
A bronze medalist when representing the USA Wrestling team at the World Championships in 2010, Suarez suffered a serious neck injury whilst training for the 2012 Olympics, with scans uncovering a cancerous growth on her thyroid.
After a switch to MMA following successful treatment, Suarez went on to earn her UFC contract by winning series 23 of the Ultimate Fighter in 2016.
Fighting just seven times into what is now her ninth year with the organisation shows the extent to which Suarez has suffered, missing 44 months between 2019 and 2023 with a neck injury, while she did not compete in 2024, mainly due to a knee problem.
Suarez did manage to compete twice in 2023, submitting both Montana De La Rosa and Jéssica Andrade in the second round.
It will be interesting to see whether Zhang tests her grappling against Suarez’ undoubted wrestling pedigree and high level jiu-jitsu, which has seen her secure four submission wins in the UFC so far.
Suarez averages 6.20 takedowns per 15 minutes (compared to 2.51 for Zhang) with a 63% success rate.
The American’s sheer physicality is a tough test for anyone and she could well finally achieve her dream of becoming champion here.
Tip 3 – Jack Jenkins to win - 15/8
This prelims headliner between Jack Jenkins (13-3-0) and Gabriel Santos (11-2-0) may be a contender for “Fight of the Night”.
Home favourite Jenkins is 3-1 in the UFC and was last seen making Herbert Burns quit in the third round of their fight at UFC 305 last August.
The 31-year-old returned from 11 months out after breaking his arm in an unfortunate fall against Chepe Mariscal in September 2023, which led to a TKO defeat.
Jenkins also has decision wins over Jamall Emmers and Don Shainis and brings a come forward style with ferocious leg kicks.
Santos has an aggressive style and usually likes to push the pace on his opponents.
The Brazilian managed his first UFC win last time out with a dominant unanimous decision win against Yizha.
The 28-year-old is 1-2 in the organisation, losing a split decision on his short notice debut against Lerone Murphy in March 2023, before being TKO’d by David Onama by uppercut in the second round three months later.
Both men have similar significant strike output (4.83 per minute for Jenkins vs 4.69 for Santos) and accuracy, with Jenkins possessing a better striking defence.
Equally, both can mix in their grappling and are durable.
Jenkins is a problem for anyone if he can implement his kicking game, breaking five of his opponents’ legs with low kicks.
The Australian is a value dog here on home turf, so expect Santos to start fast but Jenkins look to slow him down with leg kicks and take over as the fight progresses.
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Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change