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Spain vs England Prediction: Back Bellingham to make his mark in Berlin
Sunday will see England get the opportunity to make amends for their penalty shootout defeat to Italy three years ago as they take on Spain in the Euro 2024 final at the Olympiastadion in Berlin.
The Three Lions have rarely dazzled in Germany, unlike La Roja who have won all six games by playing some scintillating football. Yet England have shown great resilience and passion to score some late goals, including a 91st-minute winner in Wednesday’s semi-final against the Netherlands to seal their spot in the showpiece.
England were favourites going into the tournament but Spain – who negotiated a much tougher route to the final by beating Italy, Croatia, Germany and France – are favoured to lift the trophy this weekend.
Team news
Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand were suspended for Spain’s semi-final win over France but both should come back into the defence for Sunday’s match.
Pedri is still out, however, meaning Golden Boot-chasing Dani Olmo will get the chance to start in midfield once more.
England have no suspension or injury worries, meaning Gareth Southgate could name an unchanged starting side from the one which beat the Netherlands.
The Three Lions’ only natural left-back, Luke Shaw, played the entire second half against the Dutch and many fans will be hoping to see him start in the final ahead of Kieran Trippier.
Tip 1 - Both teams to score @ 49/50
No side at Euro 2024 has scored more goals than Spain (13) and they are good value for that tally given that they are well ahead in the expected goals chart too.
La Roja have racked up 11.2 expected goals, one clear of second-best Germany, highlighting just how effective their attacking play has been.
Luis de la Fuente made a bold call to stray from Spain’s traditional possession-based approach in favour of a more dynamic style, with his formation including two natural wingers, something which has rarely been seen in the national side.
Lamine Yamal, scorer of arguably the goal of the tournament against France, and Nico Williams have excelled out wide while the runs of Fabian Ruiz and Olmo have provided a constant threat from midfield.
Spain are an excellent attacking side and it is difficult to envisage England, who have kept only two clean sheets in their six Euro 2024 matches, keeping them at bay on Sunday.
However, the Three Lions have looked far more cohesive in attack since Southgate’s decision to switch to a fluid 3-4-3 formation, and their passing patterns in forward areas on Wednesday caused plenty of issues for the Dutch.
With Harry Kane starting and dangerous attackers Ivan Toney and Ollie Watkins waiting in the wings, England have the striking options to hurt Spain and that is without mentioning Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka and Jude Bellingham, all of whom can contribute in attack.
Both teams to score has been a winning bet in all six of the pair's combined knockout matches as well as in the last three meetings between the finalists.
Take both teams to find the net in the German capital this weekend.
Tip 2 - Jude Bellingham to score @ 23/4
Many England fans were expecting Bellingham to light up Euro 2024 after his 23-goal debut season with Real Madrid.
While that has not quite been the case, he has still enjoyed a solid tournament and has given the Three Lions a moment they will remember for a long time, especially if Southgate’s men go on to lift the trophy.
With an embarrassing round-of-16 exit on the cards as England trailed Slovakia 1-0 heading into stoppage time, Bellingham stepped up with a stunning overhead kick to force extra time, highlighting his proficiency for leaving his mark on the biggest stage.
The Madrid midfielder netted an El Clasico brace earlier this term to land a 2-1 win over Barcelona and then scored the winner in the reverse fixture with Los Blancos’ bitter rivals, showing how little he feels pressure.
Bellingham scored the winning goal in England’s opener against Serbia with a superb header, with his height and late arrivals into the box a tactic Southgate may look to exploit against Spain.
All three goals La Roja have conceded at Euro 2024 have come via crosses. The first was an own goal, the second came from a knockdown and the most recent was a terrific Randal Kolo Muani header, so Bellingham looks a big price to net in Berlin on Sunday.
Euro 2024: What Is The Ultimate European Championships XI?
Van Basten, Platini, Ronaldo, Maldini… the illustrious list of names who have shone on the European Championship stage simply rolls off the tongue.
But who represents the cream of the crop? Whose marauding wing play or midfield majesty sets them apart from the rest? Whose aptitude for the big moments makes them undroppable despite the scores of sublime players to choose from?
BetMGM is undertaking that very task as, ahead of the 2024 tournament, we try to construct the best XI from across European Championship history.
That’s right, we have gone over each previous tournament to create a mega team that could give even the mighty Manchester City a game.
Our Ultimate European Championships XI lines up in a 4-3-3 formation. Read our selections below.
GK: Iker Casillas
Nation: Spain Best finish: Winner (2008, 2012) Key stat: Team of the Tournament (2008, 2012)
While Spain was a team brimming with magicians, they have their athletic and dependable number one to thank for their incredible success in 2008. He saved two penalties in the quarter-final against Italy and kept clean sheets in the quarter-final (0-0 vs Italy), semi-final (3-0 vs Russia) and final (1-0 vs Germany).
In 2012, Casillas went even further, ensuring he reached 509 consecutive minutes without conceding a goal – breaking a record previously held by Italy legend Dino Zoff (494 minutes). He gets the nod between the sticks with two appearances in the team of the tournament in his pocket as well as two winner’s medals.
A special shoutout here for Gianluigi Buffon – a veteran of European Championships, having travelled to four tournaments – as well as the great Russian Lev Yashin. Both have a viable case for inclusion.
RB: Lilian Thuram
Nation: France Best finish: Winner (2000) Key stat: Team of the Tournament (2000)
Known as ‘The Philosopher’ by some, no outfield player has amassed more caps for France (142) than pacey and cultured defender Thuram, who gives our Ultimate XI some defensive balance.
Yes, he gave away a penalty in the 2000 final but it mattered not when striker David Trezeguet scored the only tournament-winning Golden Goal in history.
With his stellar consistency at club level for the likes of Juventus and Barcelona as well as his trophy-laden international career, Thuram is often referred to as one of the best right-backs in history.
Even legendary German Phillip Lahm would be the backup option here.
RCB: Fabio Cannavaro
Nation: Italy Best finish: Runner-up (2000) Key stat: Team of the Tournament (2000)
Nicknamed ‘Il Muro di Berlino’ (The Berlin Wall) by Italian fans in the aftermath of Italy’s famous 2006 World Cup win, he was also outstanding in the Azzurri’s run to the final of the 2000 European Championships.
Despite his small stature (5ft 9in), he was magnificent in the air and could read the game better than anyone. Conceding just twice en route to the showpiece alongside the likes of Paolo Maldini and Alessandro Nesta, Cannavaro was named in the team of the tournament just a few years after being named best player at the Under-21 European Championships.
LCB: Franz Beckenbauer
Nation: Germany Best finish: Winner (1972) Key stat: Team of the Tournament (1972, 1976)
A titan of the backline and a pioneer in terms of how modern-day coaches approach defending, Beckenbauer captained his team to European Championship glory in 1972 with a 3-0 victory over the Soviet Union in the final.
In 1976, he again led his team to the final but this time succumbed to a penalty shootout defeat against Czechoslovakia.
Nicknamed ‘der Kaiser’, he was twice voted European Player of the Year and was renowned for his ability to start attacks from the back. It is an approach most coaches agree is critical to building sustained dominance and pressure.
His compatriot, 1996 Player of the Tournament Matthias Sammer, can feel unlucky to miss out but there is no replacing the two-time-team-of-the-tournament Kaiser.
LB: Jordi Alba
Nation: Spain Best finish: Winner (2012) Key stat: Team of the Tournament (2012)
The combative left-back remains one of the most successful and effective defenders of his generation.
A pioneering and buccaneering attacking prong on the left-hand side, Alba even managed to score a memorable goal in the 4-0 thrashing of Italy in the 2012 final before making the team of the tournament.
Starting the move in his own half, Alba passed it into Xavi in midfield before making a scorching run to receive the return pass by the opposing penalty area. Producing a perfect touch in greeting a perfect pass, he burst past the blue wall and flashed a finish past the legendary Buffon in goal.
CM: Andres Iniesta
Nation: Spain Best finish: Winner (2008, 2012) Key stat: Team of the Tournament (2008, 2012); Player of the Tournament (2012)
A living legend, Iniesta is sometimes referred to as ‘El Ilusionista’ because of his ability to see passes others cannot.
Flair, composure, quick feet and incisive passing, the midfielder was a key part of possibly the greatest international team the world has ever seen.
He played every game in the 2008 European Championships and was unsurprisingly named in the team of the tournament. Four years later he was arguably even more effective and was named Player of the Tournament.
It was Iniesta’s enterprising run and clever inside pass to Alba which set up Xabi Alonso for the first of his two goals in the 2-0 quarter-final victory over France. It was emblematic of what he offers his teams: guile, skill, precision.
Pep Guardiola once mused that it was Iniesta who opened his eyes “to the importance of an inside forward or midfielder being able to dribble”. His impact on the game is far-reaching and he deserves to make this squad despite stellar competition from the likes of Andrea Pirlo and Ruud Gullit.
CM: Xavi
Nation: Spain Best finish: Winner (2008, 2012) Key stat: Team of the Tournament (2008, 2012); Player of the Tournament (2008)
‘La Computadora’ walks into any team in any era.
Xavi had his head on a swivel at all times and knew his next pass before the player who passed him the ball had even received it. Like his partner in crime Iniesta, he was an ever-present in Spain’s two European Championship victories in 2008 and 2012.
His dominance in a game is perhaps best summed up by his performance in a 4-0 victory over Ireland in the group stage at Euro 2012, where Xavi left his indelible mark on the match with 136 attempted passes (127 completed, 94% success rate) – the most ever in a European Championship.
A passing carousel and a legendary playmaker, many credit him as the major contributor to the Spanish era of dominance.
CM: Zinedine Zidane
Nation: France Best finish: Winner (2000) Key stat: Team of the Tournament (2000, 2004); Player of the Tournament (2000)
In many ways, the 2000 European Championships solidified Zidane as the leading midfield talent of his era.
‘Zizou’ was named Player of the Tournament after a memorable series of displays, which included two goals and an assist as well as two man-of-the-match awards.
The Frenchman believes he was at his best in this tournament while many observers maintain only Diego Maradona (in the 1986 World Cup) has dominated a major international competition like Zidane did in 2000.
So much so, in fact, that he even edges out compatriot Michel Platini, who scored nine goals when captaining France to 1984 European Championship glory amid a phenomenal run of three consecutive Ballons d’Or.
LW: Thierry Henry
Nation: France Best finish: Winner (2000) Key stat: Team of the Tournament (2000)
Graceful, powerful, elegant, skilful… there aren’t enough superlatives in the football dictionary to sum up Henry in full flow.
After finishing the 1998 World Cup tournament as a world champion and his team’s top scorer, he carried on his international form in 2000, scoring another three goals and earning a joint-record three man-of-the-match awards.
In total, he has six goals at the European Championships (across 2000, 2004 and 2008) with only Platini and Antoine Griezmann scoring more for France.
ST: Marco van Basten
Nation: Netherlands Best finish: Winner (1988) Key stat: Team of the Tournament (1988, 1992); Player of the Tournament (1988); Top Scorer (1988)
When one attempts to name the greatest-ever goal scored at the European Championships, all roads lead to Van Basten’s wonder strike against the Soviet Union in the 1988 final.
A first-time volley at the far side of the penalty area, close to the byline, arrowed over goalkeeper Rinat Dasayev into the net, it was a spectacular strike that is still replayed over and over again and helped the Netherlands to their first international trophy.
He was named player of the tournament in 1988, finishing as the tournament’s top scorer, while he added a second team of the tournament nod in 1992 ensuring he beats out stellar competition from Alan Shearer, David Villa and Dennis Bergkamp here.
RW: Cristiano Ronaldo
Nation: Portugal Best finish: Winner (2016) Key stat: Team of the Tournament (2004, 2012, 2016); Top Scorer (2020)
We could not leave out one of the best players of all time. A phenomenon in all senses of the word, Ronaldo has been consistency personified on the international stage.
No player has more international goals (128) or more international appearances (206). Within those eye-watering figures he has also scored more goals than any other player in European Championships history (14).
Add in his stellar 2016 tournament as he led an unfancied Portugal to victory and the three-time team of the tournament pick simply has to make the cut.
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Alternative All-time Euros XIs
It’s a game of opinions. That’s why we’ve put together some alternative teams that could push our Ultimate XI all the way. What do you think? Let us know via our social media channels.
5-3-2: Gianluigi Buffon (ITA); Philipp Lahm (GER), Pepe (POR), Matthias Sammer (GER), Alessandro Nesta (ITA), Bixente Lizarazu (FRA); Steven Gerrard (ENG), Andrea Pirlo (ITA), Michel Platini (FRA); Fernando Torres (ESP), Jurgen Klinsmann (GER).
4-4-2: Lev Yashin (USSR); Gianluca Zambrotta (ITA), John Terry (ENG), Giorgio Chiellini (ITA), Paolo Maldini (ITA); Luis Figo (POR), Didier Deschamps (FRA), Ruud Guulit (NED), Karel Poborsky (CZE); Dennis Bergkamp (NED), Antoine Griezmann (FRA).
3-4-3: Peter Schmeichel (DNK); Ronald Koeman (NED), Carles Puyol (ESP), Leonardo Bonucci (ITA); David Beckham (ENG), Lothar Matthaus (GER), Frank Rijkaard (NED), Pavel Nedved (CZE); Andrey Arshavin (RUS), Alan Shearer (ENG), David Villa (ESP).
Remember to check out the BetMGM European Championships Hub for the latest odds, specials, profiles, blogs and more
LAURA WOODS: ENGLAND TO END 58 YEARS OF HURT?
A Southgate Special Beckons in Berlin
The Euro 2024 final against Spain will be tough for England – the toughest test yet by some distance actually.
Their young wingers, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, have been amazing. Dani Olmo has come into the team virtually out of nowhere and played out of his skin. Rodri will just always be the unsung hero in every team he plays for.
I’m going to sing the Manchester City midfielder’s praises specifically here. That man is a juggernaut of a footballer. He is also on one of those Rodri-style winning runs with Spain at the moment that scares me a bit, if I’m honest.
Spain score goals and play attractive, fluid football. England, in contrast, haven’t been doing that… until the semis. But we have been excellent defensively, an area deemed our weak spot pre-tournament, and we have been winning ugly.
This might not be an end-to-end, open game of attractive football. England might do a Gareth Southgate special. Why not one more ugly win, eh? England on penalties?
No Substitute For Winning
I still think some of the criticism of Southgate’s substitutions has been warranted.
We haven’t played our best football and, at times, have been screaming from our armchairs at late changes and reacting only after we’ve gone behind or not being positive enough when we go ahead – which also dates back to Euro 2020.
You can't start a fire without a... 𝙇𝘼𝙎𝙏 𝙈𝙄𝙉𝙐𝙏𝙀 𝙒𝙄𝙉𝙉𝙀𝙍! 🔥
— BetMGM UK (@BetMGMUK) July 10, 2024
📆 14 Jul 20:00
📍 Berlin
🆚 England vs Spain
𝙄𝙨 𝙞𝙩 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙝𝙤𝙢𝙚?#NEDENG #EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/y6GzibUyp2
But the change of formation in the last two games in Germany has worked and the manager’s substitutes against the Netherlands were perfect.
Southgate is the England manager and that comes with a lot of noise and always will. But we’re into another final and that’s what’s important for now.
No Start For Semi-final Hero
There’s definitely an argument to say Ollie Watkins deserves to start against Spain but I don’t think Southgate will do that.
His winner against the Netherlands was a typical Watkins finish – I love him as a player. From the start of this tournament, the England bench has won us matches. The changes, even if late, have contributed and changed games to get us this far.
Even though we might not have seen the best of him in Germany yet, Harry Kane is world-class and dropping him for a European Championship final is not going to happen.
Nobody likes to be an ‘impact sub’ but Watkins, and the rest of the nation, will remember that goal of his forever.
Visit the BetMGM Euro 2024 Hub for the latest odds, specials, profiles, blogs & more
Spain Are Serious Adversaries
Spain are the favourites because they have come through the toughest side of the draw and won every game.
They have six victories to England’s three and have taken some serious scalps in the process like knocking out the pre-tournament favourites France and the hosts Germany as well as beating defending champions Italy in the group stage.
Spain have also scored the most goals (13 to England’s seven) and conceded fewer than us too (three to our four).
Yamal, meanwhile, is fearless. He is a world talent that we are going to revel in for years and years.
I watched him a lot in the Champions League for Barcelona this season and was really excited to see him star for Spain at the Euros – but I still couldn’t have predicted this level of stardom.
The picture doing the rounds of him being bathed by Lionel Messi was the icing on the cake. He is the real deal.
So it’s pretty clear why Spain are favourites going into the final – but it’s a final.
Anything can happen… it’s coming home!
Gareth Going Regardless
I think whatever happens in the final against Spain, Southgate will go.
I’ve heard other managers talk about cycles before; having the sweet spot with a group of players only lasts so long and sometimes your cycle ends and you’ve taken a team as far as it can go.
I think Gareth is at that point. His demeanour has been different this tournament. He is slightly sharper in his interviews, seems tired of it and is referencing “the noise” a lot more.
𝙒𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙗𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙛𝙤𝙤𝙩𝙗𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙝𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙩 𝙖 𝙣𝙚𝙬 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙩? 🤔 #EURO2024 #ThreeLions pic.twitter.com/DJpcAtGmkP
— BetMGM UK (@BetMGMUK) July 11, 2024
He also spoke about his players being crippled by a fear of public embarrassment in the group stages – although we seem to have shaken that I do think that belief is largely created by the manager.
I am a really big fan of his and I don’t like to criticise because my memories of him have been incredible… and still are. I would love for him to get the send-off and the recognition he deserves and win us the Euros.
His record with England is already impeccable – it deserves some silverware.
Final Word: The Future’s Not Orange
England fans were so heavily outnumbered in the BVB Stadion in Dortmund for the semi-final against the Netherlands. It was a sea, and wall, of orange in there.
The Dutch were in very high spirits and had been all day; I saw them partying in the streets long before kick-off and they completely dominated Dortmund.
And they were singing our songs too. The number of Dutch people who sang ‘You’re going home, you’re going home, England’s going home’ to me was unbelievable.
They had the bottle to sing Sweet Caroline too but, when the game started, it was the English fans who sang the loudest, stayed on their feet and willed their team on to win.
The supporters were there with their tops off, bellies out, tattoos on show and flags flying… and I have never felt prouder. We completely outshone them.
Unfortunately, my orange friends, it’s you going home. Auf wiedersehen.
Get ready for an entire summer of football at the 2024 European Championships in the golden era of sports betting.
Euro 2024 format
The format of the European Championships is unchanged from the event four years ago. Each team will play in one of six groups, with the top two in each proceeding to the round of 16 alongside four of the top third-placed finishers.
Winners of the round of 16 will compete in quarter-final matches with only four teams advancing to the semi-finals. The Euro 2024 final is reserved only for the spectacular, so expect both teams to put on quite a show on one of the grandest stages in international football.
The tournament kicks off on 14th June with Germany vs Scotland in Group A, culminating a month later on 14th July at the Olympiastadion in Berlin.
Each round of the Euros will take place on the following dates:
- 14th-26th June: Group stage
- 29th June-2nd July: Round of 16
- 5th-6th July: Quarter-finals
- 9th-10th July: Semi-finals
- 14th July: Final
Check out our Euro 2024 betting odds for all our latest prices throughout the tournament.
Euro 2024 teams
There are 24 teams competing in the European Championships. The first 20 places were decided in qualifying last year, with the remaining three spots going to the winners of the play-offs earlier in March. Germany is the 24th team having automatically qualified as the official host nation of the competition.
The full list of Euro 2024 teams, and the groups they will play in, is:
- Group A: Germany, Scotland, Hungary, Switzerland
- Group B: Spain, Croatia, Italy, Albania
- Group C: Slovenia, Denmark, Serbia, England
- Group D: Poland, Netherlands, Austria, France
- Group E: Belgium, Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine
- Group F: Turkey, Georgia, Portugal, Czech Republic
Euro 2024 venues
Stadiums regularly featured in the Bundesliga will host at least four games each this summer, with the final taking place at the Olympiastadion in Berlin. This is Germany’s first major tournament as hosts since the 2006 World Cup.
Matches will take place throughout the tournament in the following cities:
- Berlin (Olympiastadion)
- Cologne (Cologne Stadium)
- Dortmund (BVB Stadion)
- Düsseldorf (Düsseldorf Arena)
- Frankfurt (Frankfurt Arena)
- Gelsenkirchen (Arena AufSchalke)
- Hamburg (Volksparkstadion Hamburg)
- Leipzig (Leipzig Stadium)
- Munich (Munich Football Arena)
- Stuttgart (Stuttgart Arena)